Ohio State football ranks No. 1 in Bill Connelly's SP+ rankings

Ohio State football is sitting atop the college football world, claiming the No. 1 spot in Bill Connelly’s SP+ rankings for ESPN. After a series of dominant performances and a crucial shakeup at the top—most notably Georgia's slip—Ohio State has emerged as the team most favored to win the national championship this year.

While Georgia, Alabama, and other SEC juggernauts loom large, Ohio State represents not only the Big Ten's best team but also college football's greatest hope to break the SEC’s stranglehold on the sport.

What Makes Ohio State No. 1 in SP+?

The SP+ rankings are not based on flashy wins or a favorable schedule but on football's most sustainable and predictive aspects. These include overall efficiency, advanced metrics, and performance in critical situations. If a team wins sloppily or luckily, their SP+ ranking might fall.

Conversely, a strong performance in a loss or unlucky game might cause a team's ranking to rise. In Ohio State’s case, their dominance on both sides of the ball has been steady, pushing them to the top of the list.

Ohio State technically ascended to the No. 1 spot after what some would call an unconventional victory: Bye Week. While the Buckeyes had a rest, Georgia faltered, causing a reshuffling at the top. Now, the top five teams in SP+ are tightly packed, within just 1.8 points of each other. However, Ohio State’s balance and consistency have kept them in pole position as they gear up for the heart of the season.

Ohio State’s Place in a Tightly Contested Race

While Ohio State holds the top spot, the competition remains fierce. SP+ shows that Tennessee is surging at No. 6, and the top five teams are all extremely close in the rankings. Georgia, Alabama, and Tennessee—three SEC powerhouses—are all chasing Ohio State, making this one of the most tightly contested seasons in recent memory. But despite the fierce competition, SP+ projects that Ohio State has the slimmest edge over their closest rivals and remains favored to reach the College Football Playoff finals.

Here’s how the projected CFP 12-team playoff would shape up based on SP+ predictions:
- Ohio State is favored by 1.8 points in a potential Rose Bowl matchup against Georgia.
- In a semifinal matchup against Ole Miss, the Buckeyes are favored by 1.7 points.
- If Ohio State faces Alabama in the national championship game, SP+ gives them a razor-thin margin, winning by just 0.6 points.

These projections underscore just how tight the race is, especially as Ohio State faces a bevy of SEC teams looking to reclaim dominance.

The Big Ten vs. the SEC: Ohio State’s Crucial Role

As the top team in the Big Ten, Ohio State not only carries the hopes of their fanbase but the weight of their entire conference in what has been a long-standing battle for national supremacy against the SEC. According to SP+, the SEC still leads all conferences in overall average adjusted points per game (16.4 PPG), but the Big Ten is a solid second at 10.0 PPG, ahead of the Big 12 and ACC. This underscores the significance of Ohio State’s role. The Buckeyes are the Big Ten's best chance to upset the SEC’s dominance.

In recent years, the SEC has been the king of college football, boasting multiple national titles from Alabama, Georgia, and LSU. Last year, Michigan tried to do this, but their sign-stealing scandal has tarnished the championship and will be used repeatedly by fans and media to discredit the football played in the Big Ten. The SP+ projections highlight how tough Ohio State’s path is—if they hope to win it all, they’ll likely need to go through Georgia, Alabama, and possibly Tennessee.

Ohio State’s success this season could swing the pendulum in favor of the Big Ten, giving the conference its first national championship without controversy since 2014, when Ohio State also won it all.