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Ohio State and the Big Ten's road to dominating the College Football Playoff

Discover how Ohio State and the Big Ten could send more teams to the 2024 College Football Playoff than the SEC, setting a new standard for conference supremacy.

ByJon Rhoades|
Ohio State Buckeyes head football coach Ryan Day leads his team in warmups prior to the Peach Bowl in the College Football Playoff semifinal, Dec 31, 2022, in Atlanta. Georgia won 42-41. Ncaa Football Peach Bowl Ohio State At Georgia
Ohio State Buckeyes head football coach Ryan Day leads his team in warmups prior to the Peach Bowl in the College Football Playoff semifinal, Dec 31, 2022, in Atlanta. Georgia won 42-41. Ncaa Football Peach Bowl Ohio State At Georgia | Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK

With the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff (CFP) on the horizon, the Big Ten is poised to challenge the SEC for supremacy in college football. The SEC has long been considered the dominant conference, regularly sending multiple teams to the playoffs.

But in 2024, the Big Ten could outshine its southern counterpart by sending as many as four teams to the postseason, showcasing the depth and quality that has emerged in the conference. Here’s how Ohio State and its Big Ten rivals could claim a record number of playoff spots and potentially establish the Big Ten as the nation's premier football conference.

Ohio State’s path to Big Ten and national glory

For Ohio State, the path to the CFP and the Big Ten championship is straightforward but challenging. The Buckeyes are currently undefeated, and they face three critical matchups that will determine their playoff fate: a clash with Penn State, Indiana, and a Big Ten Championship showdown against the current #1 team, Oregon.

  1. Ohio State vs. Penn State: Penn State remains one of the few unbeaten teams left in the conference, and their meeting with Ohio State is shaping up to be one of the defining games of the season. A win for Ohio State would solidify its position as the Big Ten favorite.
  2. Ohio State vs. Indiana: It's time Ohio State fans start acknowledging Indiana as a big game on this schedule. If Indiana keeps winning, this will be a top-ten game. Indiana's new head coach, Curt Cignetti, put on a master class in the transfer portal and is also utilizing talent from Indiana's team last year. Curt Cignetti is an excellent coach and has been at multiple levels of college football. However, even though their schedule hasn't been strong, they have won by a considerable margin, outscoring opponents by 245 points, the largest total margin of victory in college football entering week 9.
  3. Big Ten Championship: If Ohio State can take down Penn State and Indiana, they will earn a rematch with Oregon, now a member of the Big Ten. Beating Oregon in the championship would secure Ohio State's place in the CFP and knock the Ducks from the top spot.

Winning the Big Ten with this schedule would give Ohio State a top seed in the playoffs, as it would require victories over multiple ranked opponents and a marquee win against Oregon.

The Big Ten's depth: More teams in the CFP

While Ohio State could end up leading the way for the Big Ten, a few other Big Ten teams are building strong playoff résumés. The key to the Big Ten's potential dominance in the new playoff format is the depth of top-tier programs capable of making a run. Here are the most likely candidates:

  1. Penn State: Even if Penn State loses to Ohio State, it still has a favorable schedule to finish the season. With just one loss, Penn State would be a prime candidate for an at-large bid. Despite its lack of dominance in games against Bowling Green and USC, its strong conference standing and the considerable parity around college football make it a lock for a top-10 finish, giving the Big Ten two teams in the CFP.
  2. Oregon: The Ducks have cruised through their schedule so far, and as the #1 team in the nation, they are in a strong position to secure a playoff berth. Even with a loss to Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship, their season-long performance would earn them an at-large bid.
  3. Indiana: While the Hoosiers may seem like a dark horse, they’ve been the most dominant team in college football vs their schedule. Their only remaining major test is Ohio State, and even a close loss to the Buckeyes could keep them in the top 12 if they dominate the rest of their schedule and show little to no drop-off with backup QB Tayven Jackson playing on Saturday for the injured Heisman hopeful, Kurtis Rourke. Indiana's combination of wins and impressive margins of victory should be enough to sneak them into the playoff field.

How the Big Ten outpaces the SEC

While the SEC remains stacked with talent, their path to multiple playoff spots is more treacherous than in previous years. With Georgia leading the pack, the SEC looks poised to send three, maybe four teams at most, to the playoffs. But if they only send three, it would be the perfect opportunity for the Big Ten to outpace the SEC. Here’s why the Big Ten could surpass the SEC:

  1. Georgia’s Dominance: Georgia is still the top team in the SEC, and barring a major upset, they should win the SEC Championship. Alabama did take them down a few weeks ago, but with Alabama losing to Vanderbilt and now Tennessee, their playoff spot is in question. The struggling Crimson Tide will likely lose another game to one of Missouri, LSU, or Auburn.
  2. The SEC is Facing a lot of Parity: Teams like Alabama, Texas A&M, LSU, and Tennessee will need flawless to near-flawless finishes to make the playoff field, and their remaining schedules include tough road games against each other and also other SEC teams that have been formidable vs. top-tier teams like Vanderbilt, Arkansas, and South Carolina.
  3. Indiana's Rise in Respect: The Hoosiers have not only won every game, but they have outstanding stats, as they are one of four Power 5 teams that have averaged 48 points per game or more since 2019 (2024 Miami, 2020 Alabama, 2019 LSU), and they are one of two teams that is in the top five in the country in yards per play and yards per play allowed. As previously stated, if Indiana only loses to Ohio State, they very well could garner enough respect to be a playoff team despite their lack of brand and strength of schedule.

Playoff Picture: Big Ten’s best year yet?

The current playoff predictions reflect a balance between traditional powers and emerging contenders, with the Big Ten standing tall. Based on how the season could play out, here's a look at the potential CFP seeding:

  1. Ohio State (Big Ten Champion)
  2. Georgia (SEC Champion)
  3. Miami (ACC Champion)
  4. BYU (Big 12 Champion)
  5. Oregon (Big Ten At-Large)
  6. Texas (SEC At-Large)
  7. Penn State (Big Ten At-Large)
  8. Notre Dame (Independent At-Large)
  9. Tennessee (SEC At-Large)
  10. Clemson (ACC At-Large)
  11. Indiana (Big Ten At-Large)
  12. Boise State (Group of 5 Autobid)

With four Big Ten teams (Ohio State, Oregon, Penn State, and Indiana) making the playoff field, this would be an unprecedented achievement for the conference. In contrast, the SEC is projected to have three teams (Georgia, Texas, and Tennessee), while the ACC, Big 12, Independent, and Group of 5 each contribute one or two teams.

Conclusion

The Big Ten is poised to make history in the first year of the 12-team playoff. Ohio State will lead the charge, but the depth of the conference — with teams like Penn State, Oregon, and even Indiana — sets the stage for the Big Ten to claim more playoff spots than the SEC. In a year filled with parity and unpredictability, the Big Ten has emerged as a powerhouse conference, making a strong case for being the best in the nation.

If Ohio State can win the Big Ten and knock off the current #1 Oregon, the conference will assert its dominance, not only on the national stage but also within the playoff structure. This could be the year the Big Ten reigns supreme in college football.

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