Whenever I am attempting to select my biggest X-factor for a football team, I typically try my best not to select a quarterback. This is because of how obvious an X-factor every team's starting quarterback is. Still, sometimes even the most obvious answer is the correct one. This is why Julian Sayin is not only Ohio State's most important player and X-factor, but also the most important one in the country, and will help dictate how this entire season shapes out.
There is never a season that goes by where Ohio State isn't one of the most important teams, but this year, thanks to their loaded schedule in the best conference, they quite possibly have the most influence out of every team in the country to shape how this season looks from start to finish.
The Buckeyes open with a marquee road rematch at Texas under the lights, then navigate a brutal Big Ten slate that includes road games at Iowa, Indiana, USC, and Nebraska, some of the nation's toughest environments. Luckily, they do get both Oregon and Michigan, but as history has shown, those games leave little to no room for error.
This schedule is extremely tough, which is why Ohio State is the most pivotal team in the country, meaning their X-factor is extremely important, and I have given that title to Julian Sayin. Sayin holds all the cards for Ohio State this season because, for them to have the success many of us expect, this offense will have to be the catalyst, especially early on.Â
Sayin and this offense’s production is massively important because OSU is coming off an offseason in which they lost seven defensive starters to the draft, five of whom were top-70 picks, with two being top-10 selections. All of whom were key contributors on a defense that was generational and did not allow any offense to score more than 2 touchdowns in a single game, with only one team scoring over 20.
Now, in response, they have reloaded nicely, adding quality talent from high school recruiting and the transfer portal, but it still may take a while to gel and may not be as strong as the unit was last year. This shows how players as uniquely talented and versatile as Arvell Reese, Sonny Styles, and Caleb Downs are irreplaceable, no matter how well your talent acquisition is.
These defensive losses mean this team will have to rely on its offense, which shouldn’t be an issue as this side of the ball has more experience and cohesion than its counterpart. Meaning their need to, at the very least, be better than they were last year should be expected, but it is also a requirement because 14 points won’t beat Texas this year, and 10 points will not mean a one-score loss to Indiana; it will mean much worse.Â
Julian Sayin will have to truly look like the Heisman finalist he was selected as in games against the top competition, unlike how he was last year, when he looked way out of his depth against Texas, Indiana, and Miami. Three games in which he threw for a combined three touchdowns and three picks, failing to score in any of them.
Sayin playing better and being a better quarterback is not an option, because if he looks like a deer caught in the headlights this year, when the quality of competition increases, then unimaginable disappointment is on its way.
On the bright side, I don’t expect this level of play to persist due to a combination of factors. For starters, Sayin is quite simply an extremely talented quarterback, where even in games where he played poorly, he still flashed talent and traits that few CFB quarterbacks have. In those games, he showed off moments of great accuracy, smooth mechanics, nice mobility, and impressive pocket navigation that, if applied on a more consistent basis, can easily make him QB1 next season.Â
While the talent is there, he also has some of the best surrounding infrastructure in the nation, as OSU, per usual, has some of the best weapons in the nation, led by the best receiver in the country, Jeremiah Smith. He is paired alongside incoming returning receiver Brandon Inniss, transfers Devin McCuin and Kyle Parker, and incoming five-star wide receiver Chris Henry Jr.
This, coupled with the fact that every other second-year quarterback Ryan Day has ever coached has vastly improved as a quarterback in their second year starting, as we saw with both Justin Fields and C. J. Stroud having stellar seasons in year two under Coach Day. Which goes to show that, if history is any indicator of what we could see from Sayin this year, the country could be in trouble.
Defense may win championships, but as we saw last year, a defense cannot win you the whole thing, or even the games against the best of the best. Ohio State's season will be heavily tied to the play of Julian Sayin. If he does well, we could be on the cusp of watching another dominant title run for the Buckeyes that features them surviving one of the toughest schedules in the country, and if he falls short again, people in Columbus might end up calling for Coach Day's head once again due to unacceptable disappointment. Â
Ultimately, Sayin's play will not only dictate Ohio State's season but also what Big Ten and title contention will look like from week one through the end of the year.
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