The College Football Playoff released its first top 25 this week, and it wasn't great for the Buckeyes, as they came in ranked 12th. That is the lowest they've been ranked by the CFP since 2017. Their backs are up against the wall after losing at USC. Their remaining schedule isn't easy, but they should be favored to win every game. Here's how the other games around the country affect the Buckeyes and the CFP at-large.
(9) BYU vs (3) Utah
One of College Football's great rivalries takes place this Saturday at 10 a.m. local time in Salt Lake City. If the Utes win this game, they can start making plans for December and January. They are the Big 12's final unbeaten team, and if they hand BYU their second conference loss, they would be two games ahead of third place.
They follow this game with a trip to Tucson, but their final two games should be easy wins against TCU and West Virginia. The Big 12 Conference is probably rooting for that outcome. They should want their best teams to win as much as possible to set up a scenario where both of its conference championship game participants make the CFP.
A Utah win would also greatly benefit Texas Tech, as the Red Raiders would control their own destiny to get to Arlington. On the other hand, it might keep the door open for BYU, as well as the four other Big 12 teams with two losses, to sneak into the title game and be 60 minutes away from the College Football Playoff.
A BYU win would really throw the conference into chaos. It would likely eliminate the two-loss teams (Arizona, Baylor, Houston, Oklahoma State) from having a shot at getting to Arlington. BYU, Texas Tech, and Utah would all have one loss, and the Red Raiders don't play either of the other two.
If these teams take care of business, we will all be studying Big 12 tiebreakers the week of Thanksgiving. I don't think this scenario is likely, but there is a chance that if all 3 of the Big 12's top teams end up going 11-1, they could all make the top 12.
(7) Texas vs (18) Missouri
Texas and Missouri are not meeting for the first time as conference opponents, but it is the first time they are meeting as SEC opponents. They each come into this game with two losses. Can either team still get into the playoff with a third loss?
Texas probably could, especially if they lose a close one. Their two losses are by a combined six points, and they have big wins over Ohio State, Tennessee, and Ole Miss, and a game at LSU still on the schedule. Without a clear picture of who will be in contention for those final spots, Texas would probably be the first in line of the three-loss teams.
I think Missouri could also have a chance, but not a great one. Their one quality win is against Florida, so they would need the Gators to remain a top 25 caliber team. They would have wins over Georgia and Kentucky in this scenario, but they also have a four-touchdown loss to Ole Miss. The Tigers would need chaos to get into the CFP if they lose to the Longhorns.
(5) Alabama vs (14) LSU
It's going to be odd to see Alabama and LSU playing under the sun. Ohio State fans know all too well how kickoff times can affect the atmosphere, but it doesn't change the stakes of this matchup. These teams each have two losses. Alabama is likely done with a third loss.
They'll have just one ranked win, with that win coming all the way back in week two at Kentucky. LSU still has games coming up against Texas and Tennessee, so maybe they'd have a slight chance if they lose this game, but I'm thinking of this one as an elimination game.
(23) Oregon vs (12) Ohio State
This was expected to be the biggest game of the college football season. There are still some high stakes in this one, but not even close to what we expected it to be in August. Both teams are playing backup quarterbacks. Oregon is probably already out of contention for a playoff spot, but if they win out, they'd have five consecutive wins, including wins over Northwestern and Ohio State. They already have a two-touchdown win at USC. The Ducks would probably need some help, but they aren't completely dead at this point.
As for Ohio State, their backs are probably up against the wall. They do have road wins at Iowa and Indiana, and their loss at Texas came by just one point, and they still have a resume-boosting game against Northwestern. A 9-3 Ohio State probably doesn't have much of a chance of getting in, unless they get a lot of help.
(6) Kentucky vs (13) Tennessee
It's Kentucky and Tennessee in a battle of schools in cities that you pass on the way to Gatlinburg. This one hasn't had stakes like this in a long time. Kentucky is currently in poll position to get to the SEC Championship Game, as they are one of just two teams in the conference with one loss.
Their next three games are against ranked opponents, but in my opinion, this trip to Knoxville is by far the toughest one left. If Kentucky wins this game, they just need to win one of their next two to lock themselves into a playoff spot. If they lose, they'll need to win the rest of their regular season games to get in.
As for Tennessee, their backs are fully against the wall. They have just one win against a ranked opponent and have one more left on their schedule after this. A three-loss Tennessee team isn't going to have the depth of wins needed to get in the playoff.
(1) Miami vs (11) Notre Dame
BYU-Utah is the most important game of the week, but Miami-Notre Dame is the most hyped game of the week and one of the most hyped games of the season. This rivalry has an intense history, and another chapter was added just last season, when the Hurricanes beat the Irish at Hard Rock Stadium to open the season.
We didn't know it at the time, but that would be the most important result of the season, as the final at-large berth in the CFP came down to those two teams. Miami was picked on the basis of their head-to-head victory.
This season, these two teams are meeting much later in the season, and the stakes are known. For Miami, this isn't a very big game. They are undefeated, and this is a non-conference game. Their final three ACC games are all at home against teams that they'll probably be favored over by multiple touchdowns. They have to lose at least two of those three games to miss the ACC championship game, and they will be guaranteed a CFP spot if they win the ACC for the first time in program history.
This game is much bigger for Notre Dame. If they lose to Miami and finish 10-2, they're in the exact situation they were in last season. Two losses in their two biggest games of the season against an overall weak schedule. It might be even worse this year.
Last season, the Irish had a two-score win against a pretty good USC team and ended the season with 10 consecutive wins. This year, they would likely have zero wins over ranked teams, with a loss in November. This game might be the season in South Bend.
(2) Georgia vs (10) Ole Miss
Georgia is probably one win away from clinching a CFP berth. They have two tough road games remaining: this one in Oxford, and one at South Carolina in two weeks. Ole Miss already has two losses. Their remaining schedule is quite manageable.
If they can knock off the Bulldogs, Rebels fans can start thinking about their second straight playoff berth. If they lose, they will have to hope that their wins over LSU and Missouri will be enough to get them in. I think they'd have a better argument if the Florida game didn't get out of hand.
(19) Iowa vs Northwestern
The stakes here are pretty simple. The winner stays alive; the loser is dead in the playoff race. I'm not entirely sure these teams have resumes that guarantee them playoff spots at 10-2, although Northwestern's 10-2 would include a win at Ohio State.
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