Ohio State is now 6-2 with four games remaining and no room for error after a 30-18 loss to USC on Halloween night in Los Angeles.
Playing without starting quarterback Julian Sayin and with true freshman Luke Fahey in his place, the play-calling and receivers failed Fahey at Los Angeles Memorial Stadium. Ryan Day, Arthur Smith, and Matt Patricia all had poor efforts managing the Buckeyes against the Trojans.
Defensively, Patricia's game plan failed despite two weeks of preparation for USC through the bye, while Day looked overwhelmed the whole game. Day was caught on camera several times looking bewildered at what was happening on the field.
There's no looking back. The CFP is still within reach, as impossible as it may seem right now.
Of course, the odds are no longer in Ohio State's favor. Winning out is the only option.
If that's not possible, who is the likeliest to spoil the Buckeyes' 2026 season in November?
Least likely to beat Ohio State: Nebraska
Those in Lincoln, Nebraska, would kill for the problems Ohio State fans have right now. Day is increasingly under scrutiny, but the AD supports him, and Day has delivered a championship in the 12-team CFP era.
The Cornhuskers have been irrelevant for the entire Matt Rhule era. Big Red may be done with Rhule by the time the Buckeyes roll through to Nebraska for the final road date on the schedule. Even though it will be in unfriendly territory, the Huskers looked unprepared against Washington and lost a third straight game in Week 9.
There's too much dysfunction in Nebraska to see them as a credible threat to upset on November 21. An interim coach would have a better chance than Rhule, though.
Second-least likely to beat Ohio State: Oregon
Frankly, the emotional toll it took for Oregon to defeat Northwestern on Saturday may have taken the wind out of the sails for next week's clash at the "Shoe." The Chip Kelly revenge game was sweet, but it's unclear if the corner is truly turned or if this was a game for pride to avoid being .500 at the end of October.
Whatever it was, it may cause the Ducks to fail to recapture the same motivation all week. Plus, a pissed-off Ohio State should still be dangerous without Sayin. The entire offensive coaching staff should be up day and night trying to figure out how to showcase Fahey in a must-win game against Oregon.
Second-most likely to beat Ohio State: Michigan
TTUN nearly embarrassed itself against Rutgers in Piscataway, New Jersey. Frankly, losing that game would've been better for the program, since it could've justified firing head coach Kyle Whittingham and figuring out a way out of college football purgatory.
So, with that said, why are the Wolverines the second-likeliest to defeat the Buckeyes? Well, because it's "The Game," and Day is coaching. He hasn't beaten TTUN in Columbus yet, after all.
Most likely to beat Ohio State: Northwestern
There hasn't been a game Northwestern wasn't competitive in all season. With losses to Indiana and Oregon, the Wildcats are still in the CFP mix. Few would've forecasted that before the 2026 season started.
Northwestern has ridden Kelly's offensive chops, paired with Aidan Chiles' emergence at the quarterback position, to a 6-2 start.
This game will probably have a lopsided spread, and with Iowa visiting Evanston, it's possible the Wildcats may be coming off a loss.
Northwestern has turned a corner, though. David Braun's program is vulnerable on the road, but any team in the country is vulnerable to having the Wildcats sneak up on them with the way Northwestern is playing right now.
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