Film Breakdown: Ohio State vs. Michigan

Ohio State Defense vs. Michigan Offense

Michigan's offense has been one of the worst offenses in College Football this season. They enter the game this week 130th in the nation in total yards. They are terrible at throwing the ball, only averaging 140 yards passing per game as they have cycled through 3 quarterbacks this season.

Davis Warren will start his 8th game of the season, and he is coming off his best game of the year in the win over Northwestern, where he threw for 195 yards. If Michigan is going to pull this upset off Warren will need to play the game of his life.

The two bright spots for Michigan have been running back Kalel Mullings and tight end Colston Loveland. Mullings is a bowling ball at running back. He is a tough and physical runner who is hard to bring down. He comes into this game with 832 yards rushing on 5.4 yards per carry.

Colston Loveland also has had an impressive season, coming in with 56 catches and 582 yards receiving. He is their leading receiver, and it isn't even close. If Michigan knocks off the Buckeyes, they will need both to have big games.

The Ohio State defense comes into this game as one of the best defenses in the country. They have played extremely well since the Oregon game. The stop rate is one metric used to determine how good a defense is. According to Max Olson of ESPN, the stop rate is, "The percentage of a defense drives ends in punts, turnover, or turnovers on downs". 

Olsons latest project has the Ohio State defense as the 2nd best in the country at 81.4%, which is outstanding. Last week's game against Indiana was a prime example of their dominance. After Indiana scored on the 1st drive Ohio State's defense shut them down and didn't let them score again until their last drive. Including those stops were 5 punts, and 1 fumble loss during the game. Ohio State’s defense continues to be one of the most dominant units in College Football.

Ohio State's defensive line continues to play well led by Jack Sawyer and J.T. Tuimoloau on the edge, but the biggest area of growth on the defense has been the play of the linebackers. Sonny Styles and Cody Simon have steadily improved throughout the season.

Simon was the breakout player against Indiana accounting for 2.5 sacks. Simon has a natural ability to blitz and find an opening against the offense. He now has 5 sacks in the year. Sonny Styles also has 4 sacks in the year and he is the Buckeye's leading tackler with 56 tackles. Styles, who transitioned from safety to linebacker, has made great strides this and continues to get better every week for the Buckeyes.

On the play below it was a key sack against Indiana last week. Tied 7-7 with halftime approaching, Indiana was facing a big 3rd down. Cody Simon had a great blitz where he was untouched to get the big sack. Great play design by Jim Knowles and good anticipation by Simon.

On paper, this is a lopsided matchup because of how well the Ohio State defense has played and how poorly Michigan has played this season on offense. In a rivalry game like this, you put the records aside and the underdog usually plays better, but this Ohio State defense is playing well and is starting to become a confident group of players. If Michigan wins this game they will need to run the ball and then hit Loveland in play-action passes downfield. I think the Ohio State defense will be ready for the challenge.

Ohio State Offense vs. Michigan Defense

Ohio State's offense has played well this season but was slowed down last week by an Indiana defense that is excellent. They had a season-low 316 yards in the win over Indiana. Now, part of it was they lost two possessions because of a fumbled punt set up with great field position and a punt return by Caleb Downs, but as a rushing offense, they were slowed down and only rushed for 115 yards. The passing game was its usual self with Will Howard continuing to play well and the wide receivers continuing to make plays in the passing game.

The one strength of the Michigan defense is their rush defense. Michigan only allows 94 yards rushing on the season, but against the passing game, they have allowed 223 yards per game. The two defensive tackles, Kenneth Grant and Mason Graham are tough to block for most teams. A makeshift offensive line played well last week for Ohio State, but they will have to play well again this week to run the ball and protect Will Howard.

The obvious strength for Ohio State is the passing game, where Ohio State has the best wide receivers in the country with Jeremiah Smith, Carnell Tate, and Emeka Egbuka. Plus, you throw in a talented tight end with Gee Scott, and you have a plethora of talented pass catches for Ohio State.

Then you add Will Howard, who is playing at a high level, and you have a talented team that can throw the ball well. One thing I noticed in last week's game against Indiana was a key drive Ohio State had. Ohio State was down 7-0 and took the ball over in the 2nd quarter after a goal line stand on the previous drive by Indiana.

Chip Kelly and Ryan Day decided it was time to dial up the passing game. 5 quick pass plays later, and Ohio State tied it up 7-7. Whenever Ohio State decides to line up and just throw the ball not many teams in America can stop them. Michigan, without their top corner in Will Johnson, should struggle against Ohio State's dynamic passing game.

Below is the touchdown pass to tie the game at 7-7. Ohio State has Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka both up top. Smith runs an in-breaking route, and two Indiana players run with him, leaving Embuka single up outside with a linebacker. Wide open for the touchdown. Great play design by Chip Kelly and excellent execution by the Buckeyes.

On paper, this should be an Ohio State blowout, but crazier things have happened before. The biggest advantage I see in the film is this Ohio State team is battle-tested after playing at Oregon, Penn State, and Indiana last week at home. They are confident, hungry, and ready to beat this Michigan team.