Ohio State has a great shot to win a national championship, despite the 20-point fourth-quarter lead they blew against Texas in Week 2. Since that loss, the Ohio State Buckeyes have crushed both Kent State and Illinois, looking like a completely different team.
With those two wins, the Buckeyes were able to bounce back to being the fifth-ranked team in the country. Ohio State will now have the really tough part of its schedule ahead of it. For fans who are still disappointed with that blown lead against the Longhorns, advanced metrics still love Ohio State's shot of winning it all.
Advanced metrics still favor Ohio State to win a national championship
Ohio State has better metrics than a lot of the big boys around college football. Heather Dinich of ESPN pointed out all of the metrics that point towards Ohio State still contending for a national title.
Ohio State is No. 1 in Game Control, No. 3 in FPI, No. 30 in SOR and has a significantly better schedule strength (24) right now than Georgia (88) Miami (108) and Notre Dame (99).
— Heather Dinich (@CFBHeather) September 27, 2026
Ohio State has controlled pretty much every game they have played. Even for the first three quarters of that Texas game, the Buckeyes were in total control. Despite how bad it is to blow such a big lead in a massive game, Ohio State has made enough adjustments in the last couple of weeks for optimism moving forward.
Of course, those adjustments have come against two bad teams. The Buckeyes haven't had the opportunity to check things out against a really good team. They will have that chance next week against Iowa. College GameDay will be there, and the Hawkeyes come into the game undefeated.
That strength of schedule will help Ohio State when it comes to comparing resumes at the end of the season, especially if the Buckeyes end up dropping another game. They still have four ranked teams on their schedule for the rest of the year, and those games come in the next five-week stretch.
Ohio State can still win a national championship, as they were favored to do before the season
While Ohio State has issues they need to take care of, it's clear the Buckeyes are still one of the most talented teams in the country. Jeremiah Smith is now the favorite to win the Heisman Trophy, and Julian Sayin is having a stellar season, as well. Getting someone else who can help Smith from a wide receiver perspective will be key.
Iowa brings in a new set of challenges that they haven't faced. Iowa plays tough defense and loves to control the ball. As they showed at the end of the game against TTUN, they can also drive the ball down the field quickly if they have to. Ohio State's defense will be facing a lot of pressure.
Metrics are great, but the games are won on the field. Ryan Day knows that he has to get his team to run the ball better and to stop the run better. Those two factors could determine the fate of the rest of the season. Ohio State is still trying to find its footing on the defensive side of the ball after losing so much talent.
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