Ohio State football: Margin for error minimal to make CFP

With a difficult schedule and the relatively easy paths other major powers have to make the CFP, Ohio State has little margin for error.

Given its talent advantage, I would argue Ohio State has had easy schedules since 2016, at least it has been in the Big Ten.

That luxury goes away in 2019.

I am wondering how the team will navigate through the conference unscathed when it failed to do so over the last four seasons. Normally I would not be too concerned about one conference loss, but I do not trust the College Football Playoff Committee to reward Ohio State anymore even if that loss was a close game.

The drums will beat loudly to include Clemson, Oklahoma and two SEC teams should it be Georgia and Alabama playing for the title again.

I know the season needs to play out but there are only a handful of teams capable of making it to the playoff invitational with a loss.  Ohio State is one of them providing the other chips fall into place.

This Committee is infatuated with the Tigers, Crimson Tide and the Sooners, so I believe all things being equal there is one spot up for grabs this season.

Alabama’s schedule is a joke so it will roll into Atlanta on December 7th undefeated barring a major slip up. The distance between Clemson and the No. 2 team in the ACC is wider than the Pacific Ocean.

This means the only thing standing between the Tigers and another undefeated regular season is their week two game at home against Texas A&M.

Jimbo Fisher knows Clemson very well so his team will be well prepared to keep it close.  I just do not think they can pull the upset.

Texas is the only opponent on the Sooners’ schedule that has talent good enough to beat the Sooners. Unfortunately for the Longhorns, Jalen Hurts decided to transfer to Oklahoma meaning Lincoln Riley’s offense is going to be equally powerful this season.

I expect his defense to be mildly better too.  Coupled with Iowa State, West Virginia and TCU having to play in Norman, I doubt the Sooners drop a game.

I am expecting Notre Dame to lose to either Georgia or Michigan, likely both since they are on the road.

Unless chaos happens, the fourth spot is open for the Big Ten champion, the SEC Championship Game loser and the Pac-12 champion.

Georgia has the talent to run the table, but its schedule has some potential landmines against Texas A&M and an away game against Auburn.  Notre Dame and Florida will be challenging too.

I still think the Bulldogs find a way to get to Atlanta with either undefeated or having just one-loss.

While I laugh a little thinking the Pac-12 has a chance this year, Washington’s schedule is soft and tailored made for a 12-0 season.  Oregon, USC, Cal, Washington State and Utah are all home games.  The non-conference schedule is Hawaii, BYU and Eastern Washington.

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Ohio State’s non-conference schedule lacks a strong opponent.  Cincinnati will be interesting only because Luke Fickell is the coach, but the Buckeyes should win comfortably.

The good news is no team has a better opportunity to make convincing closing argument than Ohio State should it get to 10-0.

The Buckeyes play Penn State and Michigan back-to-back to finish the regular season.  Win both and they are off to the Big Ten Championship game, likely against Nebraska or Wisconsin.

These are all big ifs and the season could throw surprises at us.  I just think Georgia, Oklahoma, Alabama and Clemson are loaded, all capable finishing undefeated or with one loss.

This means the margin for error is minimal if the Buckeyes want to make it back to the playoff.