Will Ohio State return to the CFP this season?
Even before the Ohio State Spring Game has been played I will look at the Buckeyes’ chances of making the College Football Playoff.
Spring practices for Ohio State conclude this Saturday after the team runs through a simulated scrimmage. By all accounts, Ryan Day’s first spring has been a success.
The coaches appear to have made progress in dealing with the concerns around linebackers and offensive line, and the competition between Justin Fields and Matthew Baldwin to replace Dwayne Haskins seems genuinely intense and open.
After the game, we will turn our full attention to fall camp.
Given the results for the last two years, I am wondering if the upcoming season will be considered a bust if the team does not make it back to the playoff.
On one level, setting that benchmark is incredibly unfair. Beating Michigan and winning the Big Ten are incredible accomplishments and the lack of a national title or playoff berth should not discount an entire season.
On another level, that is the expectation for programs like Ohio State. Alabama, Clemson and Oklahoma also share that burden.
Will the Buckeyes do it this year?
Part of me wants to believe all that is needed is Ohio State to stop losing by four touchdowns to average teams. Still, we still do not know how the College Football Playoff Invitational Committee would have voted last December if the Buckeyes lost by a touchdown to the Purdue Boilermakers instead of 29.
The Committee was enamored with Oklahoma and Kyler Murray even though the Big Ten was arguably better than Big 12 given the head-to-head record.
Two years ago, the Committee preferred two teams from the same conference over the Buckeyes even though they won the Big Ten Championship. While questionable, there was merit in its decision because Ohio State lost convincingly to Oklahoma in September and were throttled by Iowa.
Bottom line, Ohio State has an image problem dating back to its 31-0 loss to Clemson in the 2017 Fiesta Bowl.
Day might need to pull off an undefeated season for the Buckeyes to make the playoff.
At worst, he must finish 12-1 with a close loss and a convincing win in the Big Ten Championship.
There will be some latitude given the schedule. Road games at Nebraska, Northwestern and Michigan along with Wisconsin, Michigan State and Penn State at home should provide some breathing room if they drop a game.
A loss means being thrown into the eye test mix again. That might work out in their favor this year.
Notre Dame finishing undefeated again is unlikely. Games at Georgia and Michigan will probably sink their chances.
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The rise of Texas is intriguing, but I think Tom Herman is still one year away from winning the Big 12, especially with Jalen Hurts joining Oklahoma. The Sooners will win the conference again.
Clemson is winning the ACC by a mile. This will leave a second SEC team and the Pac-12 champion as the threats.
If all the comparative metrics are close, I want to believe, despite its obsession with the SEC, the Committee will avoid selecting two teams from the overrated conference.
The wildcard might be Washington who has the easiest schedule out of the Power Five favorites.
Next. Best spring games in the last ten years. dark
I can see the Huskies being this season’s Notre Dame, running the table and throwing a kink into the process.