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Ohio State will beat Wisconsin but it won’t matter to the Committee

By Willie Lutz

COLUMBUS, OH - NOVEMBER 18: Head coach Urban Meyer of the Ohio State Buckeyes watches a replay on the scoreboard during a timeout during the second quarter of the game against the Illinois Fighting Illini on November 18, 2017 at Ohio Stadium in Columbus, Ohio. (Photo by Kirk Irwin/Getty Images)
COLUMBUS, OH - NOVEMBER 18: Head coach Urban Meyer of the Ohio State Buckeyes watches a replay on the scoreboard during a timeout during the second quarter of the game against the Illinois Fighting Illini on November 18, 2017 at Ohio Stadium in Columbus, Ohio. (Photo by Kirk Irwin/Getty Images) /
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Ohio State’s ugly burden from the manhandling presented by Iowa seems to loom large with the committee, perhaps too large.

When the clock hit zero in the Iron Bowl, No. 2 Auburn set-up a winner-take-a-spot SEC Championship against the Georgia Bulldogs. However, the result probably sealed Alabama’s spot in the College Football Playoff as the No. 4 seed.

So, as the Buckeyes head to Indianapolis, IN on Saturday for the Big Ten Championship, their play is unlikely to weigh too heavily in the minds of the selection committee.

Fate is a cruel mistress, so there’s not a doubt in my mind that one way or another Ohio State will knock-off undefeated Wisconsin. The win will send the Buckeyes to a New Year’s Six Bowl, but not to the playoffs.

Without a doubt, Ohio State did this to themselves. 

The early season loss to No. 3 Oklahoma might as well be taken out of the equation. Every team except for the No. 14 UCF Knights, who have the nation’s No. 67 strength of schedule which will totally hold them out of contention for a playoff spot, has a loss or two (see Auburn).

However, no team contending for the playoffs has as bad of a loss as Ohio State had to Iowa just a few weeks ago. The middle-of-the-road Hawkeyes sit at 7-5, which is not the record of a team the Buckeyes could afford to take a loss to in a 55-24 blowout fashion.

When the Buckeyes beat the No. 3 Badgers this weekend, people will suggest the Buckeyes should have a playoff spot; you and I both know that you can’t lose 55-24 to an unranked team in conference play.

This committee will look past the Buckeyes. After receiving the benefit-of-the-doubt in 2014 and 2016, it’s hard to imagine they’ll be as forgiving to the 2017 Buckeyes.

Credit Nick Saban and No. 5 Alabama for a weak schedule, all things considered. Their only notable win was an escape-act victory against No. 16 Mississippi State, a game they won 31-24 and didn’t look very daunting.

However, the lone Crimson Tide loss was to No. 2 Auburn, a team who owns wins against No. 6 Georgia (who were No. 1) in beat-down, 40-17 fashion, and then No. 1 Alabama in a convincing 26-14 victory. Alabama’s loss is legitimate while the Buckeyes’ loss to Iowa is inexcusable.

So, no matter the score will be versus the Badgers, the Buckeyes are in grand-standing likelihood out of the playoff picture. That loss to Iowa will simply be too bad in the eyes of the committee.

No. 11 TCU might be the only chance for a Buckeyes playoff birth, but don’t count on it

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The early season loss to Oklahoma feels like it was years ago, considering the turbulent season of the Ohio State Buckeyes. Currently the Sooners control their own destiny, sitting at No. 3 in the College Football Rankings and with an 11-1 record to prove their worth.

However, it would be hard to keep the Sooners in if they were to fall to No. 11 TCU, especially as this weekend’s slate of championship games will be the last non-bowl games for teams in Power Five conferences.

Fortunately for the Buckeyes, the Big 12 Championship kicks-off at 12:30 PM and the Big Ten Championship Game will be played at 8 PM.

If Oklahoma and Wisconsin both lose, there will be two spots up for grabs in the playoff tree; one will certainly go to Alabama and then it’ll be up to the committee to decide who’s resume looks most appealing.

Next: Ohio State No. 8, Alabama benefits from weak SEC

However, don’t get your hopes up. Oklahoma and TCU squared-off in Norman, OK earlier this season. The result? A very convincing, 38-20 victory taken-home by the Sooners. 

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