Ohio State Football: Measuring two-loss teams who are CFP contenders
Ohio State is one of at least five teams with two losses that could make the College Football Playoff.
The College Football Playoff Committee’s third weekly ranking revealed that there is a good shot at least one two-loss team will make the playoff this season. A few teams, including Ohio State, have a legitimate chance to do so.
More turmoil needs to happen, but the way this season has unfolded, no one should be shocked if this occurs.
Here is a breakdown of each team and what needs to happen for each to make it.
Ohio State
I can hear the groans already. No team has been more vilified in the college football playoff era than Ohio State.
In 2014, many thought TCU should have received the bid over the Buckeyes. Of course, they proved worthy of being selected by winning the inaugural playoff, but there are many who thought they didn’t deserve it.
Last season, they were selected over Penn State who actually won the Big Ten and beat the Buckeyes. The noise got substantially louder after they were steamrolled by Clemson.
Ohio State was soundly beaten by Oklahoma at home in September and blown out by Iowa two weeks ago.
Two ugly losses are hard to ignore, but this team is top four material when they are clicking.
Odds: Trending up. They need Alabama to win out eliminating Auburn and Georgia.
Penn State
The Nittany Lions lost two away games by a total of four points. Could there be a reversal of fortune and get selected this year despite not winning the conference?
They have a strong argument to be considered given the precedent set last season, but I doubt the Committee would leapfrog them over any other two-loss team.
Odds: Trending even. Penn State is a really good team, but injuries and their offensive line issues make them vulnerable. Need chaos in the ACC and Big 12 to be considered.
Auburn
Out of all the two-loss teams, only Auburn controls its own destiny. A win over Alabama in the Iron Bowl and they will play Georgia again in the SEC Championship game. If the Tigers win both, they are in the playoff.
Odds: Trending up, but can they deliver?
Notre Dame
The Fighting Irish have a strong resume, but the loss to Miami will be difficult to overlook unless Miami and Georgia both lose two games, and I don’t see happening. Not having a championship game to play in will also hurt their chances.
Odds: Slim. The Committee did keep them ahead of Ohio State and Penn State, but that margin will be gone if Ohio State beats Michigan and Wisconsin.
It will be interesting to see how the committee places them in two weeks if they beat Stanford.
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USC
Getting blown out by Notre Dame will keep them from consideration if the Fighting Irish win out. If Stanford beats Notre Dame and the Trojans win the Pac-12, they have an outside shot.
Odds: Trending even. The Pac-12 is not getting any respect, and like it or not that’s probably fair. The conference is good but not great. There aire no signature wins and that will be the primary reason why the Committee leaves the Pac-12 out.
Longshots
TCU, Oklahoma State, Washington, Washington State, Michigan
The last thing the Big 12 and Pac-12 want is these teams winning the conference. The Sooners and Trojans are the only teams making it from either conference unless there is chaos.
Next: We debate whether 4 or 8 team playoff is the correct number
As for Michigan, beating Wisconsin and Ohio State would be significant. If this happens, I believe the Big Ten is out and we’ll have two teams from the ACC or SEC in the playoff.