2016 Bowl Season Clouds Big Ten East Strength in 2017
The Big Ten will have something to prove in September.
As the new season approaches, I am wondering how the bowl season losses by Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State will impact the Big Ten in the 2017 season?
Last year’s results should not affect the upcoming season, but I suspect they will if September results are anything less than perfect. The pressure is on to deliver early or the Big Ten might be out of the race before conference play begins.
We already know that the College Football Playoff Committee members thinking can be fickle. The conference may not get the benefit of the doubt if the metrics of comparison are similar this year. That would be a mistake.
The Big Ten is in a better position now than it has been in two decades. Urban Meyer and Jim Harbaugh, along with Mark Dantonio and James Franklin, have boosted the Big Ten’s credibility to a level that affords the conference a pass on a few setbacks.
Faith in these coaches, along with strong non-conference wins, led to the Big Ten being over-ranked throughout the 2016 season. That contributed to the dismal bowl season.
Stepping back for a moment, the only conclusion that can be made about the 2016 season is the Buckeyes and Nittany Lions were both young last season. Each team overachieved despite their inexperience and are poised to make a legitimate playoff run.
The Wolverines underachieved, especially in November, considering the experience Harbaugh had on the team. Their late-season collapse reflected the difficulty of playing on the road versus the comforts of the Big House.
I suspect these painful lessons will pay off for the program, and despite their inexperience, the team will be better in the upcoming season as they become the hunters once again.
Regardless of preseason polls and expectations, the non-conference schedule record will go a long way in determining whether the Big Ten puts a team in the College Football Playoff for the fourth consecutive season. Especially with primetime games against the SEC, Big 12 and the ACC.
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The Buckeyes will host Oklahoma in week two. The Sooners return Baker Mayfield, but lost Joe Mixon, Dede Westbrook and Samaje Perine. A loss would derail Ohio State even if it runs the table in the Big Ten.
Michigan plays Florida in Dallas to open the season. The Wolverines are replacing many starters and quality depth, but the talent Harbaugh has recruited is supposed to begin paying off this year. This is a must win to establish a baseline difference between the Big Ten and the SEC.
Penn State hosts Pitt on September 9. Trace McSorley threw a late pick in the end zone costing the Nittany Lions a chance to beat the Panthers last year. Their season is finished if they lose this game.
Penn State and Michigan have the pedigree to overcome the media and committee bias toward Ohio State, but both must finish non-conference play undefeated to have a shot at making the playoff.
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In the end, the conference is still defined by the success of the Buckeyes. The taste of the 31-0 loss will be difficult to ignore should the Big Ten’s top teams stumble in September.