Will Curtis Samuel Be Drafted on NFL Profile or Performance?

As the NFL Combine approaches, one of the more interesting stories concerning the Ohio State players entering the draft is Curtis Samuel’s. If a team only looks at his performance during the 2016 season, Samuel would be a first round draft pick. If they put weight in his draft profile, the team would probably choose him in the third round or even later.

Let’s look at what Samuel accomplished on the field first. In 2016 he had one of the finest seasons a multi-purpose back has ever had.

Samuel rushed for 771 yards and 8 touchdowns while averaging 8 yards per carry. He also had 74 receptions for 865 yards and 7 touchdowns. Compare that season with Percy Harvin’s best while playing for Urban Meyer at the University of Florida.

In 2007 Harvin rushed for 764 yards, averaging 9.2 yards per carry, and scored 6 touchdowns. He caught 59 passes for 858 yards and 4 scores.

Samuel and Harvin had similar seasons but it appears their draft status will be entirely different. While most of the mock drafts have Samuel going in the second or third round, Harvin was the No. 22 overall pick in the 2009 NFL draft.

That is primarily because of certain weaknesses in Samuel’s game as perceived by NFL scouts and general managers. While there are several of his strengths noted in his draft profile at NFL.com, the negatives appear to be carrying a lot of weight when projecting Samuel draft status.

Here is an excerpt of some of those perceived weaknesses as reported in Samuel’s draft profile at NFL.com.

"WEAKNESSESPlays with some hip tightness that make his play more linear than fluid. Needs to work on release against press. Could get hung up off the line and into his routes by athletic, press-cover slot men. Has unnatural hands that fight the throw. Will default to body catches. Didn’t have as many “pro-style” touches as teams would like."

Here is what one scout told NFL.com:

"“It’s kind of like with Jalin Marshall last year. How do you use him? He’s not a running back and his routes and hands really aren’t that good."

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It was also mentioned that Samuel is thought to be more talented than Marshall, but it still appears that NFL teams question how to use him. Could it be that they don’t have to look far to find the answer to that question.

Didn’t the New England Patriots just win a Super Bowl using a short passing game featuring wide receivers Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola? Tom Brady’s throws often were essentially long handoffs to Edelman and Amendola to allow them to use their running abilities after the catch. Think how effective Samuel could be in that kind of offense.

It’s hard to say if Samuel can do enough at the NFL Combine to overcome the negatives in his draft profile. He may have a better chance of doing so at Ohio State’s Pro Day later on when he can better showcase the skills he wants to emphasize.

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I think when the draft evaluation is over, there is a good chance that Curtis Samuel will move up in the draft order. He is simply too talented to be bypassed by every NFL team twice. It only takes one of those teams to look at his performance on the field for Ohio State and give it more weight than his draft profile.

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