Defining expectations for Ohio State football is a fairly easy exercise. They have the most resources and commitment to winning of any other program in college sports. If I really wanted to, I could come on here and say that the expectation should be to win every single game, but that isn't always realistic, and it's also shallow analysis, so I won't do that. Instead, I'll work off of their own self-stated goals. Beat Michigan, win the Big Ten, and win the National Championship.
The Michigan-Ohio State rivalry introduces a new character in 2026, and one that has made some headlines for his thoughts on the rivalry. New Michigan head coach Kyle Whittingham may not hate Ohio State yet, but if things go the way I expect them to at Ohio Stadium on November 28th, he may feel a little differently.
Don't get me wrong, Michigan should have a good football team this year. The development of quarterback Bryce Underwood will be the key to the Wolverines becoming a legit College Football Playoff threat. The reality is that these are two programs in different places right now.
Michigan is still trying to build itself back up after losing the entire core of their 2023 national championship team. They have a first-year head coach looking to stabilize a program that has been mired in controversy. Ohio State is a program that is looking to win the National Championship in 2026.
The game is in Columbus, where the Buckeyes haven't won the rivalry game since 2018. This game is the biggest game every year, but that fact right there should give Ryan Day and the team some extra motivation to win this year.
The value of conference championships isn't the same as it used to be in the minds of some. The expanded College Football Playoff takes the extra incentive away from these title games. Another reason for this is that the conferences look unrecognizable due to how big they are now, which also creates schedule imbalance within the conferences themselves.
For example, look at Ohio State's schedule and then look at Penn State's schedule. That all said, winning your conference still has value, and still should be a goal for Ohio State and everyone else. I am not going to devalue the accomplishment just because they haven't won the conference title since 2020. The schedule imbalance will make it difficult for Ohio State to get to Indianapolis, but if they do, it should be very important for them to bring home the conference title for the first time in six years.
When the playoff expanded to 12 teams, it became the baseline expectation that Ohio State would make the playoff every season. They've finished in the top 12 every year but once since 2005. They will certainly be in the playoff with ten or more wins. They could even sneak in with nine due to their strength of schedule.
Once they get to the Playoff they will need to beat three or four of the other best teams in the country. That's a tall task, although we've seen this program do it in the recent past. Do they have what it takes to do it again?
The 12-team playoff era is incredibly young. We've only had two of them (which obviously means we need to immediately expand). In the first two years of the Playoff, we've seen teams that make deep runs have a few distinct traits. Experience, depth, and high-end talent. Does this Buckeye team have those?
They have the experience. Particularly on offense. They return eight starters off of last year's offense. The new guys taking on bigger roles have plenty of playing experience at Ohio State and elsewhere. On defense, they return just three starters.
They have veteran transfers taking over at a linebacker spot, a defensive tackle spot, and two safety spots. They have Payton Pierce and Eddrick Houston, who played a lot last year but weren't technically starters. The young guys who haven't played much who will have to fill in this year are mostly playing smaller roles aside from Ian Moore.
This team certainly has the depth. Last year's team, for as incredible as it was, played mostly with just their top 11 guys on both sides of the ball. I expect them to be able to rotate guys at every position except for quarterback and offensive line, which don't ever rotate. They have depth at every level of the defense. They will see rotations at wide receiver. Multiple running backs will get carries. They will use a lot of tight ends. They should be able to keep guys fresh for a 16- or 17-game season.
Ohio State always has high-end talent. They have the best overall player in the country in Jeremiah Smith. They have arguably the best quarterback in Julian Sayin. They have the best interior offensive line in the country. There is a good chance they'll have the best safeties in the country. They do not have a clear deficiency outside of maybe a receiving tight end, which has rarely been a big part of their offense anyway.
There is no realistic scenario where we will be having conversations about firing Ryan Day like we were following the 2024 Michigan game. That said, the goodwill does not last forever. Ohio State has to beat Michigan. I would love for them to win the Big Ten, but a long playoff run would suffice as a substitute.
If they cannot accomplish either of those first two goals, the season would be a failure, unless they turn it into a national title as they did in 2024. Obviously, a national title is a successful season 100% of the time. This team has all the makings to become the first Buckeye team since 2014 to accomplish all three of their program goals, and we should hold them to that standard.
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