Ohio State has lost three games with three games still to play. Some major changes are going to have to be made. Ohio State has had better seasons that resulted in change, so this would hardly be new. The first change came with the firing of Robby Discher. That won't be the only change, but how far will this program go as they look to build back better in 2027? The answer likely depends on how the final three games go.
Getting rid of Robby Discher was an obvious change. I was a little bit surprised that it was the only coaching change made this week, because there are a few other coaches who just cannot be back in 2027. Tyler Bowen was a bad hire when he was brought in.
He had exactly one season of offensive line coaching experience in 2017. He took over an experienced offensive line with many of its best players having just brought Ohio State to a national title, and the unit has regressed to the point of costing Ohio State games.
Keenan Bailey predates Ryan Day at Ohio State and has worn many hats in this program, but this should be his last season. In some ways, he's in an unfair position because Ohio State doesn't spend nearly the proper amount of resources at tight end for how often they are featured in the offense, but the performance of the unit hasn't been up to par this season. Ohio State should be pivoting away from that philosophy, and getting rid of Bailey should be the first step.
I wouldn't stop there with the purge of the offensive staff. Carlos Locklyn was probably the best hire they could've made at the time, but it has not worked out. I'm sure he had some say in the TreVeyon Henderson-Quinshon Judkins split in 2024, which was a major reason they won that national championship, but his performance aside from that has been abysmal.
James Peoples was supposed to take over as the lead back in 2025, and he wasn't ready to play. True freshman Bo Jackson had to come in and save the room, and now, in year two, he has regressed and been passed by a 7th-year transfer in Jakobi Jackson. Worst of all, Ohio State has one running back committed in the 2027 class after losing out on David Gabriel Georges, and their one commit was a flip from Texas State.
Ohio State should can multiple coaches at the end of the year
The other obvious change should be at quarterback coach. Give Billy Fessler credit for having Julian Sayin ready to play last year, but that is almost canceled out by the fact that Sayin did not make any improvements in year two, and even regressed in some areas.
That's not the real reason to make a change here. The real reason is that Tavien St. Clair is completely unplayable after being in the program for almost two full seasons. St. Clair's lack of development has potentially ruined multiple seasons of Ohio State quarterback play.
After purging the entire offensive staff other than Cortez Hankton, I think it would be odd to bring Arthur Smith back after that. He clearly wants to be back in the NFL, and if Ohio State is going to pivot away from playing heavy tight end sets, he probably isn't the right fit at that point.
On the defensive side, I think the position coaches can all feel pretty safe. James Laurinaitis and Matt Guerrieri are arguably the two best coaches on the staff. Tim Walton needs to be better at recruiting, but I don't think moving on is necessary.
Larry Johnson is arguably the best position coach in the history of the sport, but his performance has been declining in recent years. Ohio State hasn't had a superstar defensive end since Chase Young left. If DJ Jacobs wasn't in this next recruiting class, I might have a different tone, but for now, Larry Johnson can keep doing his thing.
So if all the position coaches are good, but Ohio State has an underperforming defense, what does that say about the coordinator? Moving on from Matt Patricia would be expensive, but it might be necessary. His scheme has put Ohio State in bad positions all season, particularly in the biggest games. We were all tricked by what he was able to do last year with NFL stars on his defense. When the talent drops off, the play has cratered.
As I sit here today, I feel pretty confident that Ryan Day will be the head coach at Ohio State next season. Whether or not that is the right move is another discussion. I also acknowledge that there are still three more games for things to go off the rails.
If the Buckeyes rally and finish this season 9-3, and potentially make the Big Ten Championship Game or CFP, Day will be back. If they lose more games, however, I wonder what the point of no return is. I'm sure Penn State didn't plan on firing James Franklin last year, but it became a toxic relationship between the head coach and the fans.
Could Ohio State get there this season? If they go 6-6, it certainly will. If they go 7-5 or 8-4, he's probably back if they beat Michigan, but what if they don't? It would be the worst Ohio State football season with a full-time head coach this century at that point, and the head coach would have a 2-5 record against the team up north. Although there might be one other move Day has to save his job.
Mark Pantoni is one of the few in the Ohio State football program who predate Ryan Day. His approach to NIL and roster building has been lacking. Ohio State tried a new approach this year, going after older players with high floors. It hasn't worked.
In 2024, Ohio State went after stars in the transfer portal and built the best team in the sport. This year, they went for depth. They chose to get John Walker, James Smith, and Qua Russaw on the defensive line when they probably could've gotten Luke Wafle.
That is just one example. Pantoni has also been a culture setter in evaluating the types of people Ohio State brings into the program. If Day commits to a full culture reset to save his job, it probably means getting rid of Pantoni and possibly strength coach Mickey Marotti as well.
The bottom line is, this Ohio State football season is completely unacceptable. There have already been changes, and there will certainly be more. The final three games will determine whether or not they go with the bare minimum or go full-scale rebuild in 2027.
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