For as bad as Ohio State's most recent performance was against USC, the Buckeyes still have everything in front of them. All three of their goals are still within reach, and this program needs to break a bad streak. They haven't won the Big Ten Championship since 2020. There's probably only going to be one more Big Ten Championship Game played in Indianapolis, so the Buckeyes might as well win it. Let's look at the path for the Buckeyes.
The Buckeyes are in if they win out.... probably
Ohio State currently sits in third place in the Big Ten standings. UCLA is first at 5-0, then Indiana comes in second at 5-1 ahead of the 4-1 Buckeyes. Because of Ohio State's win over Indiana in Bloomington, they are effectively in second place; the Hoosiers have just played one more game.
If Ohio State wins out, they are guaranteed a spot in Indianapolis as long as one of the following things happens: UCLA wins out, Indiana loses a game, or UCLA loses two games or more.
The three-way tie
Could the Buckeyes be left out of the title game with an 8-1 conference record? It is possible. If Ohio State and Indiana win out and UCLA loses exactly one game, that would create a three-way tie at 8-1 atop the conference standings.
You would think that Ohio State's head-to-head win over the Hoosiers would guarantee them, at worst, a second-place finish, but that is not the case. Head-to-head does not apply in a multi-team tiebreaker unless all of the tied teams have played each other. UCLA does not play either of the other two, so we would have to move on to other tiebreakers.
The next tiebreaker is record against common opponents. How this tiebreaker applies would depend on which game UCLA loses. These three teams have two common opponents: Michigan and USC. Those are UCLA's last two games on their schedule.
If UCLA loses to one of them, Indiana finishes in first place, as they would be 2-0 against common opponents, while OSU and UCLA would be 1-1. They would then go to the next tiebreaker, which would be conference opponent winning percentage.
As of now, Ohio State's is .532, while UCLA's is .435, meaning the Buckeyes would go. If UCLA loses one of its other games, against Minnesota or Illinois, they would be 2-0 against common opponents. This is the one scenario where the Buckeyes get left out with just one loss.
Can they lose again?
While no one wants to test this theory, the short answer is yes. They can lose one more time, and they wouldn't need a completely insane sequence of events to get them back in. If they lose two more times, they would need a lot of help to get back to Indy.
USC, which just beat Ohio State, is 4-2 in conference play. There are six Big Ten teams sitting at 3-2: Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Northwestern, Oregon, and Wisconsin. Ohio State plays both Oregon and Northwestern. They have already beaten Illinois and Iowa, but lost to USC.
If they lose to Nebraska or Michigan while USC loses again, but not to Indiana, maybe Ohio State can come out on top of a potential multi-team tiebreaker with two losses. To be honest, there are too many games left to really get a full picture of that, but we'll be sure to revisit this if necessary.
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