The Ohio State Buckeyes are one of three Big Ten powers that are getting most of the love ahead of the 2026 season, along with the defending champion Indiana Hoosiers and the never-champion Oregon Ducks. Some only include the Buckeyes and Ducks in that top tier, but the point remains.
There's a clear hierarchy in the B1G. Things may not be as they seem, though, like in 2025 when the Penn State Nittany Lions started the season as the No. 2 team and ended it in the Pinstripe Bowl with an interim head coach.
The Athletic's Stewart Mandel sees a way each of these programs could disappoint this fall. For all three, it's about losses. Some of those losses are personnel losses; some of them are NFL draft departures.
"If you read my updated Top 25, you know I consider it a toss-up among my top three teams: No. 1 Indiana, No. 2 Oregon and No. 3 Ohio State. Then I have a big drop-off to No. 12 USC, No. 15 Washington and No. 17 Michigan," Mandel wrote.
"But as we know, things rarely go as predicted. My guess is that at least one of Indiana, Oregon or Ohio State falls well short of the conference championship. Maybe new QB Josh Hoover isn’t up to the task in Bloomington, or Curt Cignetti’s Hoosiers are less cohesive without those core JMU players from the past two years. Maybe losing both coordinators proves too much change at once for Dan Lanning’s Ducks. Or maybe losing 25 draft picks in two years finally catches up to Ryan Day’s Buckeyes. Mind you, even then, it’s hard to imagine that program completely imploding after 13 straight full seasons with double-digit wins, but it will happen at some point."
Ohio State has the weakest reason it can fail of the three
There are legitimate structural worries for Indiana and Oregon. Could the Hoosiers replace a leader like Fernando Mendoza, especially with someone who didn't maintain the standard after taking over for Max Duggan with the TCU Horned Frogs? Could the Ducks maintain their culture without their coordinators? Will Stein and Tosh Lupoi were major parts of Dan Lanning's operation.
When it comes to the Ohio State University, the only question is, "Can they keep being this good?" Mandel pointed to the Law of Averages and the loss of NFL draft-bound players, the latter of which is an annual occurrence in Columbus.
We know this sport doesn't always follow the Law of Averages. Sometimes, like Nick Saban's Alabama Crimson Tide, you just know a team is going to bring it year after year. Is Ryan Day there yet? Probably with one more championship. Especially if it comes this season, with the toughest slate in the nation and following a dominant, perfect regular season that wasn't honored by the team's postseason performance.
When it comes to why the Buckeyes could fall behind during the 2026 campaign, it just doesn't sound as convincing as the downfall that could realistically come to Indiana and Oregon.
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