Ohio State vs USC preview by the numbers

Ohio State and USC. The premier program of the Midwest. The premier program of the West Coast. Two classic uniforms, two great programs, under the lights in one of America's most iconic venues. Let's preview the game with some stats and historical facts.

Tale of the tape - Ohio State offense vs USC defense

Tale of the tape - USC offense vs Ohio State defense

Series History

This is the 25th meeting all-time between Ohio State and USC. The Trojans lead the series 13-10-1. This is the first time they are facing each other as conference opponents. Their most recent matchup was a 24-7 Ohio State won in the 2017 Cotton Bowl.

That win snapped a seven-game losing streak against the Trojans. This is the 17th time the Buckeyes and Trojans are facing off in the regular season, and the first since 2009. Ohio State is 6-9-1 against USC in the regular season. The Trojans have won the last four regular-season meetings dating back to 1964.

This is Ohio State's first trip to Los Angeles since 2009. The Buckeyes are 2-6-1 against the Trojans in Southern California. This is the fourth time a ranked Ohio State team will play an unranked USC. The Buckeyes are 2-1 in those games, with the most recent being in 1964. Every matchup since then has been between two ranked teams.

Strong start

Ohio State is looking to improve to 7-1 overall and 5-0 in Big Ten play. It would be the 15th consecutive season that the Buckeyes have won at least 7 of their 8 games, and the 7th time in the last 8 seasons that they've won their first five Big Ten games. USC is looking to improve to 7-2 overall and 4-2 in Big Ten play. That would make it four times in the last five seasons that the Trojans have won at least seven of their first nine games.

Ohio State is looking to complete a perfect October. It would be the 7th time in the last 8 years that the Buckeyes have won every game in October. It would be their third undefeated month in the last four regular-season months. USC is just looking for a winning October, which would be their first since 2022. It would be their third straight winning month.

This is the first matchup between Ryan Day and Lincoln Riley as head coaches. They have faced off once as coaches. In 2017, Lincoln Riley was the head coach at Oklahoma when they beat Ryan Day, who was the offensive coordinator at Ohio State.

Road warriors

Since Ryan Day took over at Ohio State in 2019, the Buckeyes are 30-4 on the road. They've won their last eight road games in the Big Ten. Over that same time period, USC is 35-12 at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. They are 4-7 against ranked teams at home, and 0-3 against top-5 teams at home.

Their last home win against a top-5 team was against No. 3 Utah in 2015. They have lost their last 4 games in that situation. The second-ranked Buckeyes are the highest-ranked team to go to Los Angeles since No. 1 Notre Dame in 2012.

Since Ryan Day took over as head coach in 2019, Ohio State has lost just one game against an unranked opponent. They have nine consecutive wins against unranked Big Ten opponents. Over that same time period, USC is 7-20 against ranked teams, and 0-3 against top 5 teams. They have lost their last 5 games against top 5 teams dating back to the 2018 Rose Bowl, when they beat No. 5 Penn State.

Since 2012, Ohio State is 24-8 in games where they are favored by less than one score. Over that same time period, USC is 1-8 as a home underdog by less than one score. Their one win was against No. 5 Stanford in 2013.

Midwest vs West Coast

Ohio State is 31-21-2 vs. current FBS teams from the state of California. They have won their last five games against teams from the Golden State, dating back to a 2009 loss to USC. USC is 13-10-1 against current FBS teams from the state of Ohio. They have never faced an Ohio team other than the Buckeyes.

Ohio State is 16-12-1 when traveling to the Pacific Time Zone in the regular season. USC is 66-30-6 when hosting current FBS teams from the Eastern Time Zone.

Since the Big Ten's new TV contract started in 2023, Ohio State has played on NBC's Big Ten Saturday Night 5 times. They are 4-1 in those games. USC has been in that time slot 7 times, with a record of 5-2. This will be the first Saturday night matchup between these two teams.

Ohio State is playing on Halloween for the 15th time. They have an 11-3 record on that day. The last time the Buckeyes played on Halloween was a 2020 win at Penn State. USC is playing on Halloween for the 11th time, with a record of 6-4. The last time the Trojans played on Halloween was a 2015 win at Cal.

Odds, similar games, and prediction

According to DraftKings, Ohio State is a 6.5-point favorite on the road at USC on Saturday night. Here is a similar game from recent seasons: In 2007, Ohio State beat Washington 33-14 as a 3.5-point favorite. That is the last time they went on the road as a one-score favorite against an unranked team as a highly ranked team.

Depending on what kind of person you are, you're either really excited or really nervous for Saturday night's game. It's a complete unknown. Luke Fahey seems like he will get the start for Ohio State. He's a true freshman who is essentially playing his first college game.

USC has been kind of a train wreck for a few weeks now. In their last four games, they lost to Oregon after knocking Dante Moore out of the game, and they got smacked on the road by Wisconsin. Their wins are close wins over Penn State and Washington, who have combined for one conference win.

Last week, I wrote that Ohio State would lose this game and then run the table. I don't think it's fair to pick a team starting a true freshman quarterback for the first time to win on the road against a talented, desperate team. I'll stick with that pick.

Do I feel confident in it? Of course not. I think anyone who says they're confident in how this game will go is lying to either you or themselves. I'll throw a dart and pick the Trojans to pull out a close one, 20-17.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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