Ohio State's first big test of the season will come in Austin against the Longhorns on Saturday night. This game features two of the top four teams in the AP Poll and a rematch of the 2024 CFP semifinal. The eyes of the nation will be on this one, and they should be in for a treat. Let's look at some numbers and historical facts.
Tale of the tape - Ohio State offense vs Texas defense
2026 (national rank) | Ohio State | Texas |
|---|---|---|
Points per game | 56.0 (6) | 7.0 (9) |
Yards per game | 671.0 (2) | 349.0 (39) |
Yards per play | 9.1 (3) | 4.8 (34) |
Rushing yards/attempt | 6.8 (7) | 3.9 (47) |
Passing yards/attempt | 11.7 (8) | 6.5 (35) |
Red zone efficiency | 100% (1) | 33.3% (2) |
Turnovers per game | 1.0 (30) | 3.0 (4) |
Tale of the tape - Texas offense vs Ohio State defense
2026 (national rank) | Ohio State | Texas |
|---|---|---|
Points per game | 3.0 (6) | 59.0 (3) |
Yards per game | 165.0 (7) | 516.0 (13) |
Yards per play | 2.7 (4) | 7.3 (16) |
Rushing yards/attempt | 2.0 (12) | 4.3 (34) |
Passing yards/attempt | 3.2 (3) | 10.6 (14) |
Red zone efficiency | - | 85.7% (47) |
Turnovers per game | 1.0 (31) | 1.0 (30) |
Series history
This will be the 6th meeting of all time between the Buckeyes and the Longhorns. Ohio State leads the all-time series 3-2. All five games have taken place this century. This is just the second time Ohio State will play at DKR. The first one was in 2006, when No. 1 Ohio State beat No. 2 Texas 24-7. Ohio State has won two of the three regular-season games between the two teams. Both were ranked in the top five in all three of those games.
Going for two
Ohio State has won its season opener for the 27th year in a row. Over that time period, they have also won their second game 20 times. They've started 2-0 for four years in a row, with their last Week 2 loss coming against Oregon in 2021. Texas lost at Ohio State to open last season, but had won their season opener in each of the six previous years. In those six years, they went 2-0 in four of those six.
Lone star stakes
Ohio State is 26-4-2 against current FBS teams from the state of Texas. They've won their last three against teams from the Lone Star State, dating back to 2008, when they lost to the Longhorns in the Fiesta Bowl. Texas has not played any other FBS team from the state of Ohio other than Ohio State.
Conference supremacy
Ohio State is 29-20-3 against current members of the SEC. They've won their last three games against SEC competition, dating back to the 2023 Cotton Bowl loss to Missouri. Texas is 41-28 against current members of the Big Ten. They have lost four of their last six games against Big Ten competition dating back to 2017, with both wins coming against Michigan.
Top dogs
Ohio State is 9-10 against top-five teams in the regular season dating back to 2002. They are 2-5 on the road in those games. One of those wins was against Texas in 2006. Over that same span, Texas is 5-13 against top five teams. They are 1-3 against the No. 1-ranked team in the country. The one win was against Oklahoma in 2008.
Since Ryan Day took over the program in 2019, Ohio State is 28-3 on the road. They are 7-3 on the road against ranked opponents. Over that same span, Texas is 36-8 at Darryl K. Royal Stadium. They are 7-6 at home against ranked teams.
Saturday night lights
Ohio State is 26-6 on ABC Saturday night football since it began in 2006. This week will be their first time on SNF since 2022, when they beat Wisconsin. They won their last six games in that time slot dating back to a 2018 loss at Purdue. Texas is 14-8 on Saturday night football. The Longhorns have won three of their last five games in the time slot, with both losses coming against Georgia.
Coaching battle
Ryan Day is 2-0 against Steve Sarkisian as a head coach. He is 3-1 against him as a coach overall. In 2014, Day beat Sarkisian as the offensive coordinator at Boston College while Sarkisian was the head coach at USC. The last three matchups have come with Day as OSU head coach. Sarkisian won in the 2020 national championship game as offensive coordinator at Alabama. Day has beaten Sarkisian twice since he became head coach at Texas.
Underdog mentality
Ohio State is 2-4 as an underdog under Ryan Day. The most recent game in which Ohio State was not favored was their season-opening win over Texas last year. Under Steve Sarkisian, Texas is 3-3 when favored by one score at home.
Since 2005, Ohio State is 12-7 against non-Big Ten power conference opponents during the regular season (including Notre Dame). Texas is 9-15 in those games over that span (including BYU).
Odds, similar games, and prediction
Texas is a 1.5-point favorite on Saturday night at DKR. Here are some recent games where Ohio State was a slight road underdog against a highly ranked team. In 2014, they won 49-37 at Michigan State as a 3-point underdog. In 2006, Ohio State won 24-7 at Texas as a 3.5-point underdog.
I struggle with a prediction here. Everything I know about these rosters and these coaching staffs tells me that this will be a high -scoring, competitive game that comes down to the last play. Similar to when Ohio State went out to Oregon in 2024 and lost 32-31.
That said, I am mentally prepared for a slugfest. Since that game at Oregon, Ohio State's last six games that were competitive for 60 minutes were all low-scoring. Three of those six games involved the winning team scoring less than 20 points, and the other three only got above 21 points due to a defensive score. Two of those six games were against this same Texas team.
In a game like that, I'll go with who I trust. I trust Julian Sayin more than I trust Arch Manning, and I trust Ryan Day more than I trust Steve Sarkisian. Give me the Buckeyes 23-20 on a Connor Hawkins field goal at the buzzer, or maybe with one second left.
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