Ohio State's season is on life support. They need to win their final three games and get some help to have a chance to get to Indianapolis and/or the College Football Playoff. Their first test comes against the Northwestern Wildcats and former OSU offensive coordinator Chip Kelly. Let's preview the game with some stats and historical facts.
Tale of the tape - Ohio State offense vs Northwestern defense
2026 (national rank) | Northwestern | Ohio State |
|---|---|---|
Points per game | 19.3 (27) | 35.7 (21) |
Yards per game | 365.4 (75) | 467.9 (15) |
Yards per play | 5.5 (75) | 6.7 (17) |
Rushing yards/attempt | 4.6 (97) | 4.0 (95) |
Passing yards/attempt | 6.4 (30) | 9.6 (8) |
Red zone efficiency | 42.9% (12) | 65.85% (45) |
Turnovers per game | 1.7 (18) | 1.1 (45) |
Tale of the tape - Northwestern offense vs Ohio State defense
2026 (national rank) | Northwestern | Ohio State |
|---|---|---|
Points per game | 31.0 (49) | 18.3 (21) |
Yards per game | 421.2 (38) | 287.0 (15) |
Yards per play | 6.4 (27) | 4.6 (15) |
Rushing yards/attempt | 4.9 (41) | 3.25 (21) |
Passing yards/attempt | 8.7 (18) | 5.8 (7) |
Red zone efficiency | 67.6% (41) | 54.2% (42) |
Turnovers per game | .3 (2) | 1.2 (62) |
Series history
This is the 82nd all-time meeting between Northwestern and Ohio State. The Buckeyes lead the series 66-14-1. Their most recent matchup was a 31-7 Ohio State win at Wrigley Field in 2024. The last time Northwestern came to Ohio Stadium was a 24-20 Ohio State win in 2016. The Buckeyes have won 11 straight games against the Wildcats dating back to 2004.
This is the 43rd time Northwestern and Ohio State have met in Columbus. The Buckeyes are 34-8 in those games. They have won 16 straight against the Wildcats in Ohio Stadium dating back to 1971. This is the 40th time since the AP Poll began in 1936 that a ranked Ohio State team has played an unranked Northwestern team. Ohio State is 37-2 in those games. Ohio State has won eight consecutive games in that situation, dating back to 2004, when Northwestern beat No. 7 Ohio State at Ryan Field.
Ohio State is looking to improve to 7-3 overall and 5-2 in Big Ten play. The Buckeyes haven't lost four games overall and three games in conference play since 2011. Northwestern is looking to improve to 7-3 overall and 4-3 in Big Ten play. That would be their best start to a season since 2017, and their best start in conference play since 2020.
Common opponents
Ohio State and Northwestern have three common opponents: Indiana, Iowa, and Oregon. Ohio State beat Indiana 19-15, while Northwestern lost to them 29-23. Both of those games were in Bloomington. Ohio State beat Iowa 31-14 in Iowa City, while Northwestern lost to them 24-10 at home. Both teams lost to Oregon. Ohio State lost 41-28 at home, while Northwestern lost 34-26 in Eugene.
This is the second time Ryan Day has coached against David Braun, with the first being an Ohio State win over Northwestern in 2024 at Wrigley Field. Day is 4-0 against the Wildcats as the head coach at Ohio State.
Since 2019, Ohio State is 30-3 against Big Ten opponents at Ohio Stadium. Over that same period, Northwestern is 9-23 on the road against conference opponents. They are 0-8 against ranked teams on the road, and 0-6 against teams ranked in the top 20 on the road. The last time Northwestern beat a ranked team on the road was in 2018, when they beat No. 20 Michigan State in East Lansing.
Still ranked
Since 2019, Ohio State is 58-2 against unranked teams. They've won 10 consecutive games against unranked teams at home, dating back to a 2024 loss to Michigan. Over that same time period, Northwestern is 1-21 against ranked opponents, and 1-17 against teams ranked in the top 20. Their one win was in 2020 against No. 10 Wisconsin at Ryan Field.
Ohio State and Northwestern have each lost their last two games. The Buckeyes are looking to avoid their first three-game losing streak since 2011. The Wildcats are looking to avoid a three-game losing streak in a third consecutive season.
Ohio State is 139-44-5 against current FBS teams from the state of Illinois. They have won their last 18 games against teams from the Prairie State, dating back to a 2007 loss to Illinois. Northwestern is 25-77-1 against current FBS teams from the state of Ohio.
Saturday's game will kick off at noon and be broadcast live on FOX. Ohio State is playing in that time slot for the 34th time, and they have a record of 29-4. The Buckeyes have an eight-game winning streak on Big Noon dating back to a 2024 loss to Michigan. Northwestern is playing on Big Noon for the 4th time, and they have a record of 0-3. This is the first time Ohio State and Northwestern are playing each other on Big Noon.
Odds, similar games, and prediction
Ohio State is a 12.5-point favorite on Saturday afternoon per DraftKings. Here are some similar games in recent years: In 2013, Ohio State beat Penn State 63-14 as a 14-point favorite. In 2009, Ohio State beat Wisconsin 31-13 as a 16-point favorite. In 2007, Ohio State lost to Illinois 28-21 as a 14.5-point favorite.
As of writing, we don't know if Northwestern quarterback Aiden Chiles is going to play. He missed last Saturday's game against Iowa with an upper-body injury. His injury status has been described as "uncertain." Based on the performance of backup Nicco Marichol, I would say Chiles's status will make a big difference in this game.
If Marichol starts, there is no excuse for Ohio State not to win this game fairly comfortably. If Chiles plays and looks like himself, I think this will be a four-quarter game. I expect Arthur Smith to make a point to get the ball to Jeremiah Smith this week, and against a subpar Wildcat defense, he puts up big numbers and drags this team to a win.
If Chiles plays, Ohio State wins 31-20. If he doesn't, they win 34-13. The Buckeyes keep their season on life support for at least one more week.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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