Ohio State will begin its 2026 national championship quest against the Ball State Cardinals in Ohio Stadium. On paper, this game looks like a historical mismatch, as the Buckeyes are favored by 50.5 points. Let's look into some numbers and historical facts.
Tale of the tape - Ohio State offense vs Ball State defense
2025 | Ball State | Ohio State |
|---|---|---|
Points per game | 29.9 (93) | 30.6 (26) |
Yards per game | 407.6 (90) | 405.2 (36) |
Yards per play | 6.0 (113) | 6.3 (17) |
Rushing yards/attempt | 4.9 (105) | 4.3 (59) |
Passing yards/attempt | 8.0 (110) | 8.9 (10) |
Red zone efficiency | 82.05% (51) | 87% (45) |
Turnovers per game | 1.2 (77) | .8 (10) |
Tale of the tape - Ball State offense vs Ohio State defense
2025 | Ball State | Ohio State |
|---|---|---|
Points per game | 14.2 (132) | 10.0 (1) |
Yards per game | 258.8 (134) | 223.3 (1) |
Yards per play | 3.9 (135) | 3.9 (2) |
Rushing yards/attempt | 3.1 (129) | 3.0 (9) |
Passing yards/attempt | 6.0 (124) | 5.5 (3) |
Red zone efficiency | 69.2% (130) | 69.23% (2) |
Turnovers per game | 1.3 (67) | .8 (111) |
Series history
This is the first matchup ever between Ball State and Ohio State, which is quite surprising considering the two campuses are about a two and a half hour drive, and each team has been in FBS since the 1970s.
Season openers
Ohio State has made it a yearly tradition of starting the season off on the right foot. They have won their season opener in each of the last 26 years. Their last week one loss was against Miami in 1999 at the Meadowlands. Ball State has been incredibly predictable in season openers. Over the last nine seasons, the Cardinals are 3-6 in week one, with three wins over FCS opponents and 6 losses to FBS competition.
Border war
Ohio State is 129-30-7 all-time against FBS teams from the state of Indiana. Ball State, which plays in a conference with six teams from Ohio, is 97-110-4 all-time against teams from the Buckeye State.
Conference supremacy
Ohio State is 39-1 against current members of the MAC, with their last loss coming against Akron in 1894. They have won 36 consecutive games against MAC competition. Ball State is 3-31-1 against current members of the Big Ten. All three of their wins have come against Indiana, most recently in 2012. They have lost 8 consecutive games against Big Ten competition.
David vs Goliath
Ohio State has not lost to a non-power conference opponent since 1990, when they lost to Air Force in the Liberty Bowl. They've won 65 consecutive games against non-power conference competition. Ball State has not beaten a power conference opponent since they beat Indiana in 2012.
They have lost 15 consecutive games against power conference opponents. They are 0-9 against top 10 teams. They have faced the top-ranked team in the country once. They lost 45-3 at No.1 Georgia in 2023. The highest-ranked team they've ever beaten is No. 18 Toledo in 1997.
Odds, similar games, and prediction
Ohio State is a 50.5-point favorite against a MAC team to open its season. A recent game that had a similar script was 2024 against Akron. The Buckeyes were 48.5-point favorites, but failed to cover as they won 52-6. I think Ball State will cover on Saturday, as Ohio State has much bigger fish to fry next Saturday in Austin. I expect mass subs at halftime and draining the clock in the second half. Ohio State wins 52-3.
This game shouldn't be close, and the Buckeyes should be able to play plenty of backups once the second half begins. Plenty of players should see snaps in this one.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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