The Ohio State Buckeyes are the betting favorite to win the 2025/2026 College Football Playoff, with the Indiana Hoosiers slightly behind them in most sportsbooks, and no one close behind either Big Ten school, practically anywhere.
Needless to say, this is OSU's tournament to lose.
Sports Illustrated's Eva Geitheim believes the Buckeyes have the third-toughest path, right behind the Georgia Bulldogs and well beyond Indiana. The Hoosiers would merely have to face a flawed Oklahoma Sooners or Alabama Crimson Tide before getting another crack at the Oregon Ducks or facing an expensive and highly-touted Texas Tech Red Raiders roster. The TAMU Aggies or Miami Hurricanes, Ohio State's second-round opponent, were given their due as potential upset candidates in the Cotton Bowl Classic.
Geitheim simply doesn't see the Aggies or Canes, or the Ole Miss Rebels or UGA Dawgs, their semifinal opponent, assuming they get that far, having much of a chance against Matt Patricia's historic Buckeyes defense that's ranked No. 1 in opponents' overall yardage and passing yards.
"The reigning national champions will start their playoff with a matchup against either Miami or Texas A&M. Though both teams have the potential to cause an upset, Ohio State’s defense, which allows just 8.2 points per game, should be able to handle either the Hurricanes or the Aggies," Geitheim wrote.
"Even if Ohio State faces a potent offense like Ole Miss or Georgia in the following round, their defense will give them a strong chance at making it through their side of the bracket and potentially back to the national championship game."
Indiana represents Ohio State's greatest CFP obstacle
If there's anyone who gets in his own head when a coach seems to have the edge on him, it's Ryan Day. For six years, Day couldn't overcome Jim Harbaugh, his disgraced two-year replacement, and the Wolverines machine. Curt Cignetti and Mike Shanahan's offense just outdueled Brian Hartline's in yardage, and IU's trenches won the war. Not to mention the infamous Jayden Fielding missed field goal.
There's a reason Geitheim didn't mention the Hoosiers. They've been there and done that, being the only team to look like they had a chance. Of course, Indiana had more than just a chance in the Big Ten title game.
It also speaks volumes that Geitheim sees the road the Tulane Green Wave would face with a monumental first-round upset as tougher than the James Madison Dukes.
IU holds the advantage over OSU, for now, but the Buckeyes still hold the advantage over anyone else.