Ohio State's path to the NCAA Tournament after deflating loss to Michigan State

The Ohio State basketball team's path to the NCAA Tournament is tougher after a close loss to the Spartans.
Michigan State's Jeremy Fears Jr., center, defends against Ohio State's Bruce Thornton, left, during the second half on Sunday, Feb. 22, 2026, at the Breslin Center in East Lansing.
Michigan State's Jeremy Fears Jr., center, defends against Ohio State's Bruce Thornton, left, during the second half on Sunday, Feb. 22, 2026, at the Breslin Center in East Lansing. | Nick King/Lansing State Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Ohio State basketball team continued an all-too-familiar theme on Sunday night by losing another close game. This time, they fell to the Spartans of Michigan State. Had they won that game, the Buckeyes would have had their second Quad 1 win of the year.

Instead, they ran out of steam in the final few minutes of the game. With that loss, Ohio State has just four games left in the regular season. They sit firmly on the bubble with no guarantee that they will make the NCAA Tournament for the first time in four seasons.

If the Ohio State Buckeyes want to play in March Madness for the first time with Bruce Thornton on the roster, they have a defined path. With four games left in the regular season, they have a specific number of wins they must obtain in order to play meaningful basketball in March.

What the Ohio State basketball team must do to make the NCAA Tournament

In order for the Buckeyes to make the NCAA Tournament, Ohio State must win at least three of its final four games. They have matchups against Iowa, Purdue, Penn State, and Indiana remaining. The only acceptable loss is to Purdue, unless they are able to take down the Boilermakers.

If Ohio State pulls off an upset against Purdue, a loss to Iowa in Iowa City shouldn't be too damaging. A loss to Penn State would almost certainly end their season unless they win the rest of their games. If they lose two or more of these games, they need to do some work in the Big Ten Tournament.

Two wins in the Big Ten Tourney should be enough to give them an at-large bid. Before the loss to the Spartans, they were listed as one of the last four teams to get a bye by Joe Lunardi of ESPN. Any further loss could be extremely damaging to their chances.

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