Mapping out Ohio State’s 2025 season, one that started against preseason Heisman Trophy favorite Arch Manning and then No. 1 Texas, a Week 7 trip to Champaign, Illinois, could have been easily overlooked. However, as the No. 1 Buckeyes prepare for No. 17 Illinois on Saturday, the reality is that Matt Patricia and his defense are preparing for the best quarterback on their schedule.
Manning has been a flop in his first year as the Longhorns’ starter, Penn State’s Drew Allar hasn’t taken the next step in his senior season, UCLA’s Nico Iamaleava has shown flashed, including a Week 6 win over the Nittany Lions, but is far too inconsistent, and Michigan five-star freshman Bryce Underwood is talented and improving, but still inexperienced. Washington’s Demond Williams was putting up huge numbers before Ohio State rolled into Seattle, but Illinois’s Luke Altmyer has outplayed them all.
The Fighting Illini, even with an embarrassing 63-10 loss to Indiana on their resume, have been one of the most efficient passing offenses in the country. Altmyer is 17th in the country in EPA/dropback, second-best to Williams on Ohio State’s schedule, and his 8.67 yards per dropback slots him 15th nationally and 5th in the Big Ten, trailing Jayden Maiava, Julian Sayin, Fernando Mendoza, and Dante Moore.
However, Altmyer is doing it with considerably less help than those other quarterbacks. Illinois’s veteran offensive line, which returned all five starters, has been a massive disappointment, allowing a 34 percent pressure rate on Altmyer and generating just a 42 percent rushing success rate and -0.07 EPA/carry (106th).
Pressure rate can at times be a quarterback stat, and Altmyer’s 30 percent pressure-to-sack rate, one of the worst in the country, is an opportunity for Ohio State’s defensive line to create negative plays on Saturday. Still, the good far outweighs the bad with Altmyer.
Despite the limitations in the trenches, and a wide receiver room that is largely overhauled from last season, Altmyer is averaging 10.6 yards per attempt with 12 touchdowns to zero interceptions, and when kept clean, he’s even more lethal, completing 77.5 percent of his throws for 11.8 yards per attempt with a 151.9 passer rating (on the NFL scale which tops out at 158.3).
Ohio State’s defense is allowing five points a game, and -0.31 EPA/dropback this season. Patricia has installed a sophisticated scheme that disguises and mixes coverages in the secondary like an NFL unit. Most impressively, they've allowed a 98th percentile 3.7 percent explosive pass rate this season, so Altmyer and his top receiver Hank Beatty will need to be excellent to strike a blow to the Buckeyes that no other offense has to this point.
Altmyer might be one of the best quarterbacks in the country, and he's easily top five in the Big Ten. However, if this is the most fearsome passing attack that Ohio State is set to face this season, the Buckeyes can all but pencil in a 12-0 regular season and a date with Oregon in the Big Ten Championship Game.