As spring practice looms on the horizon, Ohio State football finds itself in a much different situation than it did last year. The Buckeyes, fresh off a national championship in 2024, have been tagged by ESPN Writer Bill Connelly as one of the teams "most likely to regress" in 2025. This bold prediction stems from their dismal ranking in returning production—a metric ESPN uses to gauge how much of a team’s production is coming back from the previous season.
Sitting at 101st out of 136 FBS teams with just 46% of their production returning, Ohio State faces a reloading challenge that will test their coaching staff and vaunted recruiting machine. For reference, if we compare Ohio State's returning production to Michigan's last year, Michigan ranked 130th with just 36% of its production returned.
So, what’s behind this label? ESPN’s returning production metric, detailed in a recent article, looks at how much of a team’s statistical output—think passing yards, rushing yards, tackles, and snaps—returns from one year to the next. It’s a formula that blends factors like returning offensive line snaps (40% of the offense’s score), quarterback passing yards (22%), and defensive snap counts (66% of the defense’s score), among others.
Transfers are factored in too, with incoming players bringing their past stats to offset losses. Historically, teams with high returning production tend to improve, while those with low numbers—like Ohio State this year—can often take a step back.
In Bill Connelly's analysis, he points to the losses of quarterback Will Howard, who threw for over 4,000 yards, and running backs Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson, both of whom topped 1,000 yards on the ground. Wide receiver Emeka Egbuka, another 1,000-yard star, is gone, as is All-American left tackle Donovan Jackson.
Defensively, the hits keep coming: their entire starting defensive line, who racked up 49 tackles for loss combined, and four other starters are moving on. Oh, and both coordinators? They’re out the door too, though Connelly doesn’t factor that into the production numbers. That’s a jaw-dropping exodus of talent from a team that finished No. 1 in ESPN’s SP+ rankings in 2024.
However, Connelly is also not giving up on the Buckeyes in 2025—at least not on paper. He says they’ll likely start 2025 ranked No. 1 or No. 2 in preseason polls, thanks to stars like receiver Jeremiah Smith and safety Caleb Downs, who are sticking around. The Buckeyes’ recruiting pipeline is also overflowing with blue-chip prospects ready to step up.
But replacing such a massive chunk of production isn’t as simple as plugging in new faces, no matter how talented they are. Connelly finishes by noting that teams returning less than 40% of their production regress 75% of the time, often dropping significantly in performance. Ohio State’s 46% isn’t quite that low, but it’s close enough to raise eyebrows.
This sets the stage for a true test of head coach Ryan Day and his staff. Can they coach up a roster full of young, talented, but mostly unproven players to match last year’s dominance? Can their top-tier recruiting—consistently among the nation’s best—translate into immediate results?
Spring practice will be the first glimpse at how this reloaded squad comes together. The offense will need a new quarterback to emerge, the offensive tackles must gel quickly, and the defense has to rebuild its front entirely. It’s a tall order, but one Ohio State has shown in the past that they can handle.
ESPN’s returning production data isn’t a crystal ball—Tennessee had a 48% returning production last year and still made the playoffs. For Ohio State, 2025 could hinge on how well Day and company turn potential into performance. Buckeye fans might still expect greatness, but this spring, all eyes will be on how this reshuffled roster handles the pressure.