The Ohio State Buckeyes were the first team to ever win a 12-team CFP, and they could beat their blue-blood counterparts to another CFP first this coming December: becoming the first three-loss regular season team to make the field.
Cleveland.com's Stefan Krajisnik believes Ohio State can achieve what the Texas Longhorns couldn't in 2025 and the Alabama Crimson Tide couldn't in 2024, given the uber-difficult schedule this fall, but only if the Big Ten teams on the schedule cooperate and win enough games for those hypothetical three losses to look strong.
"Among the 14 three-loss teams in the three-year sample, 2024 Missouri had the best collection of defeats. Its worst loss came against Texas A&M, the 16th-ranked team in FPI that year. However, Mizzou had losses to South Carolina and Alabama — a pair of 9-3 teams ranked ahead of it as a result of head-to-head records," Krajisnik wrote.
"That’s where Ohio State’s true test could come if it tries to entertain a CFP bid with a 9-3 record. The Buckeyes have the brand power to make a case for a postseason entry with three losses, just as Alabama had in 2024 and Texas had last year...But Ohio State’s schedule could stand in its own way. OSU needs its opponents to succeed in order to remain high in the rankings. Otherwise, a stockpile of Big Ten teams ranked between No. 10-15 could force Ohio State down the list due to head-to-head results."
Ohio State's schedule is so tough that losing three games is on the mind in May
Ever since the Buckeyes' schedule was announced in January, figuring out which three games the team can lose and still make the CFP. It's not surprising to see this conversation heat up in May, after seeing the receiver room beyond Jeremiah Smith and Chris Henry Jr. look underwhelming during the spring game. There are enough injuries in the RB room and offensive line to worry about the kind of load Julian Sayin can handle.
The Longhorns are an extremely difficult matchup in Week 2 on the road, while a month-long stretch of facing the Indiana Hoosiers, USC Trojans, and Oregon Ducks is a more daunting challenge than any school has faced in three consecutive matchups in years. The B1G looks like the most top-heavy conference in the country, and most of the projected contenders are on OSU's slate.
This could set up one of the great runs in College Football history, or have Ryan Day squarely back on the hot seat. There's really no in-between those two extremes. Day has proven that he can win on the biggest stage, especially when his back is against the wall. He proved that back in 2024.
Of course, the Big Ten is the best conference in the country, so it won't be easy to make the CFP. That's what makes this year so interesting and potentially historic in Columbus. Can Day navigate the toughest schedule he's had since taking over as head coach?
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