We've made it to one of the best weeks in the College Basketball season in Conference Tournament week. The Ohio State basketball team has put themselves in this position where they look to make one final attempt at getting a spot in the NCAA Tournament. In order to do that, they will need to win at least two games in the Big Ten Tournament to have a good chance of getting an at-large bid.
There's always a lot of craziness that happens in March. Last season saw five bid-stealers in the NCAA Tournament, so it just goes to show anything can happen including Ohio State winning at least two games in two days.
The tournament bracket is set and prepared to begin on Wednesday. The Ohio State basketball team begins their play in the Big Ten Tournament on the first day against Iowa who snuck into the tournament field with the last spot after beating Nebraska on the last day of the regular season.
While the Buckeyes have a great opportunity ahead of them this week to boost their tournament chances, it certainly won't be easy. Here are three reasons why they could have some problems with their path in the Big Ten Tournament.
First round game has potential to be a "trap game"
The Ohio State basketball team gets their tournament started with Iowa on Wednesday. If you remember back to late January, the Buckeyes met with the Hawkeyes in Columbus in a game in which Ohio State dominated cruising to an 82-65 win.
You may be wondering why I'm worried this could be a trap game for Ohio State after they handled Iowa in their one and only meeting of the season. Here's why:
The Hawkeyes are second in the Big Ten in scoring behind Illinois at 82.3 points per game. They are also second in field goal percentage in the conference this season, as well as leading the conference in assists at 18.3 per game.
This Iowa offense is like your typical Fran McCaffery offense. They play extremely fast, fourth in the Big Ten according to KenPom's tempo metrics, and put up as many threes as possible. The Hawkeyes are third in the Big Ten in three-point attempts per game at 25.8 and second in percentage at 37.7% from three.
This game feels like it could be a trap game to me because compared to their last meeting to now, Ohio State hasn't been defending nearly as well as they were at the time. According to Bart Torvik, at the end of January Ohio State was 22nd in defensive efficiency. From the start of February to now, they rank 109th in defensive efficiency.
With the firepower Iowa contains on offense, they will need to guard a lot better than they have. If this turns into a shootout, Ohio State could have some problems getting out of the first round.
Illinois dominant play on glass could eliminate Buckeyes in Round 2
Coming into this week, ideally, Ohio State would've wanted to avoid a path that includes Illinois who is the hottest team in the conference behind Michigan State. Unfortunately, that will not be the case.
Assuming Ohio State gets past Iowa in the first round of games, seventh-seeded Illinois waits for them in the next round. The Ohio State basketball team squared off with the Fighting Illini just once this season in Champaign in a game the Buckeyes fell 87-79 at the start of February.
Ohio State led the majority of the game until Illinois went on a 15-0 run in 5 minutes to take a 10-point lead with less than three minutes to go. One main thing that hurt the Buckeyes in this game was their play on the boards.
Illinois ranks third in the entire country in rebounds and won the battle on the glass in this game 43-31. Aaron Bradshaw and Ivan Njegovan combined for just three rebounds in this game. If the matchup presents itself, Jake Diebler will certainly need those guys to step up their rebounding.
A win over Illinois would be a seventh Quad 1 win for Ohio State, but would it be enough?
Maryland will be looking for revenge in the Quarterfinals
The Ohio State basketball team beating Iowa and Illinois in the Big Ten Tournament might be enough for them to sneak into the NCAA Tournament, but there would still be more basketball to be played. After Illinois comes second-seeded Maryland and the "Crab Five" in the quarterfinals.
If you remember, Ohio State split the season series with Maryland after the Terps dismantled the Buckeyes in College Park, and the Buckeyes responded with their best NET win on the season with Bruce Thornton taking over going for 31 points, and banking in the game-winning three.
Sure, the Buckeyes have a pretty solid resume with some great wins, but multiple times this season, they haven't put together a full 40-minute game of quality basketball. This is especially true as of late, dropping four of their last six to finish the regular season.
Anything is possible in this wild month of March, and Ohio State is just looking for a couple of wins to put themselves in a position to make the NCAA Tournament. It would be awesome to see them catch fire in the Big Ten Tournament, go on a run, and lock up an at-large bid. However, it will not be an easy task to complete.