When the Big Ten expanded to the West Coast, for all the negative drawbacks of that, we knew that it would create some more marquee matchups. This season, Ohio State is getting the brunt of that, as games against USC and Oregon, as well as a non-conference trip to Texas and a strong Big Ten, have given them the toughest schedule they have ever had.
The toughest schedule they've ever had isn't just a hyperbolic statement. The numbers back it up. 1974 was the first season where they started playing 11 games every year. 2002 was when they started playing 12 games per year.
The only other season where they played at least six ranked opponents was 1999. The only other years they've played three teams in the top 10 were 1999, 2016, and 2024. They've never played multiple teams ranked in the top five. 2024 was the only other year where they played two top-six teams on the road. They do all of those things in 2026.
The good news for the Buckeyes is that the hard games are decently spaced out. They have a warmup game in Ball State to open the season before they go to Texas, and then they have a comedown game against Kent State before Big Ten play opens. The first three games of the Big Ten schedule are manageable, but they have a trip to Iowa in between home games against Illinois and Maryland.
After those games begins the toughest three-game stretch they've had in a long time. They go to Indiana for a rematch of last year's Big Ten Championship game. A matchup of the last two national champions. After a bye week, they fly out to Los Angeles for a game against USC, then fly all the way back home for a matchup with Oregon.
Great things don't always work out, but as of now, the Ducks and Buckeyes would be a matchup of the top two teams in the AP Poll. Their final three games include a runway to the Michigan game. They play Northwestern at home and Nebraska on the road before hosting the Wolverines.
Their over/under on most sportsbooks is at 9.5, which seems absurdly low for a program that has only lost three or more games in the regular season once since 2005. The difficulty of the schedule is the reason for that, but it gives the Buckeyes some room for error.
If they go undefeated, they will be the number one seed. If they lose one game, they will get a first-round bye. If they lose two games, they will be a playoff lock and almost certainly will be hosting a first-round playoff game. If they do end up losing three games, they'll still have a very strong playoff case.
A 9-3 Ohio State team would have wins over three of Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Oregon, Texas, and USC. A 9-3 team has not made the playoff yet, although Alabama would have made it with 3 losses in 2024 if Clemson didn't steal their bid in the ACC championship game.
10-2 appears to be most people's expectation for the Buckeyes. I don't see them losing to Michigan. Expecting them to win all three of that rough stretch of Indiana, USC, and Oregon is a tough ask. The Texas game could set the tone for the season. If they win that game, they are pretty much playoff locks. A loss ramps up the intensity, and the Buckeyes will need to be playing their best football in mid-October.
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