Ohio State's playoff chances got a slight boost this past weekend, although that isn't much to do with their win over Maryland. We are getting to the point of the season where contenders are starting to separate themselves.
Oregon took another loss, which directly affects Ohio State in the Big Ten, but LSU and Florida both took their second loss in the SEC. The rest of the season should be incredibly fun to watch. Let's look at what is coming up this weekend.
(4) Ohio State vs (5) Indiana
The last two national champions meet in a rematch of last season's Big Ten Championship game, about 50 miles south of Lucas Oil Stadium. This is the biggest game in the history of Memorial Stadium, and the stakes are as big as ever.
If you're a fan of one of these teams, you can start mentally getting your travel plans for the Playoff in order. I feel especially strong about this for Indiana. They are still undefeated and will be double-digit favorites in every game remaining on their schedule except for maybe USC.
The Hoosiers should be fine even if they lose on Saturday. Ohio State has a bit of a tougher road after this. Their next game is at USC. They still have ranked Northwestern on their schedule, a trip to Nebraska, and the rivalry game against Michigan. I don't see a realistic scenario where the Buckeyes suffer two more losses if they win in Bloomington, but their back will be against the wall because they blew a 20-point fourth quarter lead in Austin.
(16) Mississippi State vs (22) LSU
This feels like a potential elimination game here in mid-October. It certainly is a game that will severely hurt the loser. If Mississippi State loses, they would have to run the table with wins at Texas and at Ole Miss. If LSU loses, they would need to win out, including a three-week stretch of Alabama, Texas, and at Tennessee, and they would probably need help to become the first three-loss team to make the 12-team playoff.
(6) Alabama vs (14) Tennessee
The Third Saturday in October is here, and that means Alabama and Tennessee going at it in a game with massive stakes. If the Volunteers win this game, it makes things a lot more interesting. Alabama would have no more room for error with a trip to Baton Rouge still on the horizon, while Tennessee would probably have room to take a loss on their tough November schedule.
An Alabama win would put Alabama in a spot where they just need to take care of their business to be 11-1 and back in the CFP, while Tennessee would have to win out with Kentucky and LSU still on the schedule. Tennessee hasn't been able to win a game of this magnitude since the last time the Crimson Tide came to Knoxville in 2024.
(13) Missouri vs (9) Ole Miss
Missouri might be different this year. Their win over Florida doesn't look nearly as good after the Gators got smashed by South Carolina last week, but the Tigers looked incredibly impressive themselves, beating the breaks off Texas A&M at home.
Now they travel to Ole Miss, who lost to that same Florida team that Missouri just dispatched. Of course, transitive property isn't always true in sports, but that's a good sign for Mizzou. This isn't an elimination game in the traditional sense, but the loser will have their backs against the wall with difficult schedules remaining. I think this game will be very revealing as to who is real and who isn't in the SEC.
(2) Notre Dame vs (8) BYU
Notre Dame's season begins on Saturday night in Provo, and a win here likely puts the Irish back in the playoff after just missing out last season. Last year, the Irish lost their two biggest games of the season against an otherwise weak schedule. This year, their schedule is even weaker and has just two big games on it.
This is one of those big games. If they win on Saturday night, they're in the playoff even with a loss to Miami in November. A loss here makes that game a must-win, since the Irish don't have a conference to win. This game isn't nearly as big for BYU, as they are still undefeated and should find themselves back in Dallas for the Big 12 title game if they can win in Salt Lake City in a few weeks.
This game is huge, however, for the Big 12 as a whole. If BYU wins this game, it greatly increases the probability that the conference can get multiple teams in. BYU could make the playoff at 11-1 or 12-1 with a loss in the conference title game if they have a Notre Dame win on their resume.
Wisconsin vs (12) UCLA
The Big Ten hierarchy doesn't necessarily look the way we thought it would, because who thought Wisconsin visiting the Rose Bowl in mid-October would be a game with real Big Ten and CFP stakes? Both teams come in undefeated in conference play, and UCLA is coming off a win in Eugene.
For Wisconsin, this is the start of a three-game stretch against ranked opponents. They will need to win at least two of those three games, and then run the table to be in playoff talks. UCLA is undefeated and does not play a ranked team until USC comes to the Rose Bowl at the end of the season. This game is big for both teams, but even bigger for the Badgers because they already have a loss to their name. Nico Iamaleava might be out for the season, too.
(18) Oklahoma State vs (20) Houston
This is the first matchup of ranked Big 12 teams this season. In a Big 12 race that is extremely competitive in the top three, this game feels like an elimination game, especially for Houston, because the Cougars already have a loss to Texas Tech.
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