Ohio State's playoff chances didn't change much this past week. They took care of business against Illinois, while some other Big Ten games with massive implications were going on. Only time will tell how Oregon beating USC and Iowa beating Michigan will affect the final 12. As we enter October, the games start to feel ever bigger now. Let's look at the big games on the schedule this week.
(7) Alabama vs (16) Mississippi State
Mississippi State and quarterback Kamario Taylor have been one of the stories of college football through the first month of the season. After picking up a big win over a ranked Missouri team last week, the Bulldogs are ranked in the top 20 for the first time since 2022.
For a team that has won just 12 total games over the last three seasons, they have a chance to knock off the Crimson Tide at home and start having realistic playoff discussions in Starkville. They will be favored in four of their final seven games. If they can win on the road at one of LSU, Texas, or Ole Miss, the Bulldogs will be in the CFP for the first time.
Alabama needs to make sure to not get caught looking ahead. They have two of their biggest rivals coming up in the next two weeks: Georgia and Tennessee. If they can win two of their next three games, they should be a playoff lock going into November, with a trip to Baton Rouge still on the horizon.
Vanderbilt vs (2) Georgia
This Georgia team has looked like the team that ran college football from 2021-23 in their first four games of the season. With Oklahoma being such a massive disappointment, the Bulldogs haven't faced a real test yet. They won't face one this week either, against Vanderbilt, but going against Jared Curtis after he decommitted from Georgia at the last second adds a little bit of intrigue to this one. Georgia's season really begins next weekend in Tuscaloosa.
(5) Ohio State vs (14) Iowa
Iowa, coming off of their walk-off win in Ann Arbor, returns home to try to take down Ohio State. They will be looking to accomplish a rare feat, as only two teams have beaten both Ohio State and Michigan in the same season since 2012. They are also looking to put themselves right into the thick of the college football playoff race.
Iowa's remaining schedule isn't a cakewalk, but Ohio State is the last ranked team remaining on it. If they win this game, they can afford to drop one of their tough road games at Washington, Minnesota, or Northwestern. If they lose, they'll still make the playoff if they win out, and they'll be favored in every game.
This is also a very important game for Ohio State. Some have speculated that the Buckeyes could be the first 9-3 team to make the College Football Playoff with their strength of schedule, but I'm sure they don't want to test that theory. A loss here would mean that Ohio State has lost each of their first two tough games of the season and would have to beat Indiana, USC, Oregon, and Michigan to put themselves back in the top 12.
(8) Florida vs (25) Missouri
Is Florida back? They appear to be after destroying Ole Miss last Saturday. The Gators still have the top two teams in the country left on their schedule, but they'll be favored in every game other than that. They have a road test in Columbia this weekend, which I expect them to pass.
Missouri seems to live in the bottom of the top 25 despite never actually beating anyone good. They're a litmus test for the SEC. The good teams in the conference never lose to Mizzou, whereas the bad ones never beat them. I think Florida is good, so I expect them to win.
(10) BYU vs TCU
BYU looks to stay unbeaten as they travel to Fort Worth for their first road test in Big 12 play. They will need to win all of these conference games where they are favored if they want any chance of getting an at-large bid.
(4) Miami vs Clemson
It's too bad for the ACC that Clemson has fallen off over the last few seasons. A Clemson team from the late 2010's hosting this Miami team on a Saturday night would be one of the games of the year in college football. Unfortunately, we've got Miami going in as a big favorite, and a game that may or may not be competitive.
Washington vs (18) USC
USC desperately needs a bounce-back performance in front of the home crowd after their tough loss to Oregon last week, and they might have the right opponent to do just that. Washington has been one of the most disappointing teams in college football so far this season.
They paid Demond Williams a lot of money to keep him from transferring to LSU, and so far the Huskies have failed to score 25 points against an FBS opponent. Their issues were exacerbated by a home loss to Minnesota last week. USC will have the perfect opportunity to build up some positive momentum before their trip to Penn State in the whiteout next Saturday night.
Utah State vs (22) Boise State
Boise State is the first non-power conference team to enter the AP poll this season following a blowout win over Western Michigan in Kalamazoo. This week, the Broncos host Utah State on the blue field in each team's first-ever Pac-12 game.
(6) Indiana vs Rutgers
Indiana hasn't been as dominant to start this season as they have been in the past, but this can be a get-right game for them. Rutgers has the potential to be the worst power-conference team in college football. Indiana's season really starts after this game, as they have a Big Ten Championship Game rematch against Ohio State sandwiched between tough road games at Nebraska and Michigan.
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