Ohio State's playoff chances got a little bit better this past weekend, and not because of their uneventful beatdown of Kent State. One of their toughest remaining opponents, the USC Trojans, went cross-country to face Rutgers and struggled to put away a horrid Scarlet Knights team. This week USC will host Oregon as one of the headliners of the first big-time college football slate of the season.
(1) Texas vs (14) Tennessee
The first test for the Volunteers comes against the number one team in the country, as Texas and Tennessee play each other for the first time as SEC opponents. Tennessee hasn't beaten a power-conference opponent with an above .500 record since they beat Alabama in October of 2024. They've looked good, particularly on offense, in the first three games, but now it gets real.
If the Volunteers win this game, they'll likely be undefeated when Alabama comes to town on the third Saturday in October. A win over Texas would put the College Football Playoff in clear view for Tennessee, as they will be favored in every game the rest of the season, including a home game against LSU in late November.
Texas's schedule is an absolute warpath for the rest of this season. Six of their final eight games are against ranked opponents, and that does not include the Red River Rivalry. Any game they lose wouldn't knock them out of the playoff race, but it would ratchet up the intensity and urgency in Austin.
Illinois vs (7) Ohio State
The Big Ten opener for Ohio State features one of the easier games on a difficult conference schedule. Illinois has been a solid program under Brett Bielema, and maybe they can still have a good season, but the team that gave up 31 points at home to Duke shouldn't be able to match up with the Buckeye offense in the Horseshoe.
(4) Ole Miss vs (21) Florida
This week will be a test of the mental strength of the Ole Miss Rebels. Coming off one of the most emotional games they've ever played against Lane Kiffin and LSU, Ole Miss has to go to Gainesville to play an upstart Florida team under head coach John Summrall.
A win in this game has a great chance to be the determining factor in whether or not the Rebels are back in the Playoff. They still have the top two teams in the country left on their schedule, but will be favored in every game. A loss to Florida probably means they would have to find a way to beat Texas or Georgia.
If Florida wins, they would announce themselves as a real threat to make the College Football Playoff. Their October schedule includes three teams ranked in the top 20, but their November schedule is very favorable. If they can beat Ole Miss, they probably need to win just one of those three difficult games in October to have a real playoff case.
(17) Iowa vs (18) Michigan
The narrative of this game will probably be about the loser more than it is about the winner. If Iowa wins, people will say that Michigan isn't a very good team. They should have lost against Western Michigan, and the win over Oklahoma just means the Sooners' offense was slightly worse than theirs on that day. If Michigan wins, people will say that this is the same old Iowa: a solid, middle-of-the-road Big Ten team that can never win against a good team to put themselves in real playoff contention.
I'm not sure how good this game will be, but I can't see a scenario where the loser of this game is fighting for a playoff spot in late November. Both teams are undefeated, so this isn't the case, but it feels like this is the first elimination game of the season.
(23) Texas A&M vs (10) LSU
This is a matchup of two teams that are coming off of a loss. Texas A&M's home loss to Kentucky was a shocker, and one that has people rethinking how they feel about the Aggies in 2026. LSU lost an emotionally charged game at Ole Miss in one of the most hyped up games of the entire college football season.
We will see which team can get itself back on track on Saturday night. I would argue that this game is more important for A&M. They would have to beat Missouri, Alabama, Tennessee, and Texas with their backs against the wall to make the playoff, and I just don't think they're good enough to do that. LSU also has some difficult games, but they should have the talent to manage it.
(20) Oregon vs (12) USC
This is the first big game of the Big Ten season. Oregon, which came into this season as one of the favorites to win the national title, looked extremely vulnerable in its first two games, particularly on defense. Now they go to Los Angeles to face one of the nation's top offenses in USC.
There is some hope for the Ducks, because they have done this before. In 2024, Oregon's first two games were an absolute sleepwalk against Idaho and a game they should have lost against Boise State. They ended up going 12-0, winning the Big Ten, and being the number one seed in the College Football Playoff.
They need to bounce back this week to show that they can still salvage a season that still includes a trip to Columbus. USC is in a similar position to Penn State was last year when they hosted Oregon in late September. This is their first chance to really prove that this season is going to be different. The hype around the Trojans has died down a bit after their trip to Rutgers last week involved a rough defensive performance, but the talent on this team is still there. This will be a game full of veterans against one full of youth.
USC still has to play Penn State, Ohio State, and Indiana after this game, and a win here would put them in a great position to navigate that schedule. A loss might prove that they are still too young, or maybe just not good enough to do so.
(19) Missouri vs (24) Mississippi State
Mississippi State has entered the top 25 for the first time since 2023 after impressive road wins at Minnesota and South Carolina. Now they have a big test in their first SEC home game against Missouri. The Tigers have been a litmus test for the entire SEC over the last few years.
They don't lose to the bottom of the conference, but they don't win against the top. If Mississippi State wins this game, they could be a true threat in the SEC. Their next two games are against Alabama and LSU, and they still have a trip to Texas before the Egg Bowl on Thanksgiving. If they lose, those games probably won't have any impact on the playoff race because the Bulldogs won't be good enough to beat any of those teams.
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