After Ohio State's latest loss, many have said that their playoff chances are gone. While no one really wants to hear it right now, the Buckeyes are not entirely done, but they are on life support. After losing consecutive regular-season games for the first time in 15 years, the Buckeyes need help to get back to the CFP.
There are still a lot of games left to play, and I would like to see the Buckeyes show some life against Northwestern on Saturday before we have those conversations seriously, but there are still some games that affect the Buckeyes and the playoff race as a whole this weekend.
Illinois vs (4) UCLA
There are two absolutely massive games in the Big Ten this week that will have a big impact on the conference race. The Bruins can clinch a spot in the Big Ten Championship game with a win, along with losses by Ohio State, USC, and Iowa. If UCLA wins this game, they would be at 10 wins, and if they do end up clinching a spot in the title game, it would also essentially put them in the College Football Playoff at that point.
At no point during this season has anyone had serious thoughts about Illinois making the Playoff, but it is not out of the question. The Fighting Illini are currently in a six-way tie for 3rd place in the Big Ten. If they can win out and get a little bit of help, they could be a tiebreaker away from Indianapolis.
For Ohio State's purposes, they should be rooting for an Illinois loss. They need as many of the two-loss Big Ten teams to clear out of this tiebreaker as possible, so the Buckeyes can be one Indiana loss away from getting back to the Big Ten title game.
Duke vs (7) Miami
This is a sneaky huge game in the ACC. With just two losses in conference play, the Duke Blue Devils need just a little bit of help to be in the exact same situation they were in last season: a tiebreaker away from getting to Charlotte. If this were to happen, the Duke Blue Devils would have a chance to win back-to-back ACC titles for the first time since they won three straight from 1960-62.
Miami suffered its first loss of the season last weekend in South Bend, but they should be fine. Their final three games are all at Hard Rock Stadium, and they'll probably be big favorites in all three. They'll be in the ACC Championship game as long as they win at least two of their last three games. They can clinch a spot in Charlotte this week with a win and losses by Louisville and SMU.
(13) Wake Forest vs SMU
Wake Forest controls their own destiny to get to the ACC title game, while SMU needs some help. If the Demon Deacons win out, they'll be in the ACC Championship Game, and they should be in the playoff no matter what happens in Charlotte.
If SMU wins, it would give Wake Forest their second loss, and it would almost certainly mean that the ACC Championship Game loser will not make the playoff if it isn't Miami. There are currently four ACC teams with two losses, and a Wake loss would make it five. We could have tiebreaker chaos in the ACC for the second year in a row.
Northwestern vs (20) Ohio State
Here we have a battle of three-loss Big Ten teams. I don't think Northwestern has any chance to make the playoff, but I think Ohio State is still holding onto hope. The Wildcats have zero wins over ranked opponents, and Ohio State is their only opportunity to obtain one. They also have three conference losses and would need a miracle to get to Indianapolis.
Ohio State has two road wins over top 15 teams. They also have just two conference losses. If Indiana, whom Ohio State beat head-to-head, loses another game, Ohio State could be a tiebreaker away from getting to Indianapolis and having a chance to get to win the Big Ten and get an automatic playoff bid.
(18) USC vs (9) Indiana
This is the biggest Ohio State football game that they aren't actually playing in since the 2022 PAC-12 Championship Game. This time, Ohio State fans will be rooting for the Trojans. For Ohio State to get to the Big Ten Championship Game, they either need Indiana to lose or UCLA to lose twice. After this game, the Hoosiers play at Washington and at home against Purdue. This is the game they are most likely to lose.
While these two teams are meeting for the first time as conference opponents, this could be an elimination game. Because of their win over Ohio State and ending their season with a game at UCLA, USC might still have a chance to make it to 9-3, but they would effectively be eliminated from a Big Ten title game appearance with a loss in Bloomington.
If Indiana loses this game, they would end the season with zero wins over ranked opponents, even if they go 10-2. They would still have a shot to get to Indianapolis, but if they don't, they could have a hard time making a case that they should be in the field of 12.
Northwestern and Nebraska's seasons going sideways have really hurt the Hoosiers' resume, but based on their current playoff ranking, the committee clearly has given the defending national champions the benefit of the doubt so far. We'll see if they still have that after a second loss.
Baylor vs (10) BYU
There are three massive games in the Big 12 this weekend, and this is one of them. Each of these teams is sitting on two conference losses, and the loser would almost certainly be knocked out of the Big 12 title and playoff race. Baylor certainly doesn't have a chance of getting an at-large berth, and BYU is a long shot, despite currently being ranked 10th, but if Texas Tech loses a game, the winner of this game could have a path to Arlington.
Michigan vs (16) Oregon
The next sentence I type might be the worst thing about Ohio State's most recent loss and their season as a whole. The Buckeyes need Michigan to win on Saturday. Well, they don't necessarily need that, but Oregon losing another game would help clear out the two-loss Big Ten tiebreaker. The fewer teams in that mix, the better, especially because Oregon has the head-to-head win over the Buckeyes.
(2) Utah vs (23) Arizona
This is Utah's last big hurdle as the run towards its first undefeated regular season in 18 years. The Utes can clinch a spot in the Big 12 Championship Game with a win and an Oklahoma State loss. Arizona is still fighting. They need to win each of their last three games, and they need a Texas Tech loss to force a tie for second in the Big 12 standings, and then hope that the tiebreakers can fall in their favor to get to Arlington.
(6) Texas vs (21) LSU
I wonder if Greg Sankey will attend this game wearing burnt orange. A Texas win here keeps them in prime position to get to the playoff and keeps them alive in the race for the SEC Championship. An LSU win likely takes the Longhorns out of contention to get to Atlanta, and makes the playoff race even muddier.
If LSU wins out, including wins over Texas and Tennessee, it would just add those three teams to the list of potential 9-3 teams. Ohio State fans should be rooting for Texas, as the Longhorns could serve as a cap on Ohio State's final ranking and would put more teams in the mix for the playoff at 9-3.
(12) Texas Tech vs (25) Oklahoma State
Another big one in the Big 12. After BYU's loss at Utah last weekend, Texas Tech now controls its own destiny for the Big 12 title game, where it'll have a chance to defend its conference title. Oklahoma State is the adopted favorite of every other Big 12 team with two losses, as the Cowboys can throw the Big 12 into tiebreaker chaos.
I think Brett Yormark will be the biggest Red Raiders fan out there, as they represent the best chance for the conference to get two teams in the field.
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