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Calculating the Ohio State football team's chances of making CFP with another loss

The Ohio State football team already has one loss. What are their chances of making the CFP if they get another loss? The answer; depends on who they lose to.

By Ryan Stano

Oct 12, 2024; Eugene, Oregon, USA; Ohio State Buckeyes wide receiver Emeka Egbuka (2) gets tackled by Oregon Ducks defensive back Brandon Johnson (3) after a catch in the second half during the NCAA football game at Autzen Stadium
Oct 12, 2024; Eugene, Oregon, USA; Ohio State Buckeyes wide receiver Emeka Egbuka (2) gets tackled by Oregon Ducks defensive back Brandon Johnson (3) after a catch in the second half during the NCAA football game at Autzen Stadium / Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
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The Ohio State football team already has a loss this season. The Buckeyes fell to Oregon two weeks ago 32-31. It was a game that they could have won. In the end, they weren't able to get it done. The good news is that with the new 12-team CFP, one loss won't kill them.

Ohio State's goal is to win the rest of their games this season. That would guarantee them a spot in the CFP and possibly a Big Ten Championship. The question is whether or not the Buckeyes could get in with another loss. We investigate what the odds are in that scenario.

With some help from ESPN's Allstate Playoff Predictor, we find out if the Buckeyes can afford another loss. The answer is yes, but it depends on who the loss is to and when the loss occurs. Take a look at what all of the different scenarios are for this team.

The Ohio State football team can afford another loss

Let's say Ohio State only loses to Penn State the rest of the way. If that happens and they don't make the Big Ten Championship Game, the Ohio State Buckeyes have a 78% chance to make the CFP. They would likely have to travel to some other team's campus for a first-round game.

If that second loss comes to Indiana, Ohio State has a 79% chance to make the Playoff and they would also travel in the first round. If that second loss comes to Michigan in the final game of the year, they have an 80% chance to make the CFP. All three of those scenarios are favorable in their odds.

Let's say the Buckeyes win all of their remaining regular season games and lose in the Big Ten Championship Game. If that happens, they have a 99% chance to make it and a 75% chance to host a first-round game. So a second loss doesn't kill Ohio State.

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A three-loss team would all but eliminate them. They would have just a 1% chance to make the CFP if that were to happen. Let's hope that doesn't occur.

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