Ohio State's offense is going to take a whole different shape after the bye week due to the injury to Julian Sayin. While Arthur Smith will have to take on a whole new challenge that he didn't expect in his first season as offensive coordinator of the Buckeyes, we can take the bye week and assess how his offense has looked up to this point.
Here is the OSU offense by the numbers. The Buckeyes are averaging 39.3 points per game. That's tied for 12th in the country, and 1st in the Big Ten. Their season high is 59 against Kent State, and their low is 19 against Indiana. They average 6.95 yards per play, 11th in the country and 2nd in the Big Ten. Their season high is 9.3 against Ball State, and their low is 4.6 against Indiana.
They average four yards per carry, which is 99th in the country and 12th in the Big Ten. Their season high is 6.8 against Ball State, and their low is 2.1 against Indiana. They average 10.7 passing yards per attempt, which is number one in the country. Their season high is 13.6 against Kent State, and their low is 7.6 against Indiana.
Those are the big picture stats; now here are some situational stats. Ohio State is converting 44.3% of the time on third down. That is 41st in the country and 6th in the Big Ten. They are converting on fourth down 75% of the time, which is tied for eighth in the country and tied for first in the Big Ten. They are scoring touchdowns on 66.7% of their red zone trips, which is tied for 47th in the country and tied for 8th in the Big Ten.
Positional grades for the offense before the bye week
Now that we've got the statistical picture, let's analyze this offense by position. We'll start up front with the offensive line. This has been a hard group to evaluate because it's one that hasn't been healthy.
Austin Siereveld has missed the last two games, and his status going forward is still uncertain. The line is completely different when he plays vs. when he doesn't play. They also missed Phillip Daniels for four weeks, and once he came back, he gave up the sack that got Julian Sayin hurt.
This group is one of 25 offensive lines to make the Joe Moore Award midseason honor roll. When healthy, I think this offensive line is good enough to win a national championship, but not good enough to be the reason they win a national championship. I am quite worried about the future of this room when Austin Siereveld, Luke Montgomery, and Carson Hinzman leave, but that's a discussion for a different day.
Next, we'll talk about the tight ends. This position group has been my biggest frustration since I've been following Ohio State football. To be clear, I don't have any issues with the players themselves. They just aren't good enough for how often they play.
Last Saturday in Bloomington, the Buckeyes had four tight ends on the field for three straight plays, meaning they had no wide receivers on the field, which means no Jeremiah Smith. I could go on for a while about the tight ends, but the short of it is that if Ohio State wants to keep playing all of these tight ends as they have been for the last couple of years, they need to go out and spend NIL resources on some better players at that position.
The wide receiver position hasn't been at the level that it has been for the last half-decade or so, but it is still the best position group on Ohio State's offense. Jeremiah Smith is the best player in college football, and I still believe he is going to win the Heisman Trophy even with Julian Sayin no longer throwing him the football.
Over the first half of the season, the Buckeyes have not been able to find another reliable target. Devin McCuin's games against Ball State and Iowa have been the only time that any other Ohio State receiver has made a big statistical impact on the game.
Jeremiah Smith has led the team in catches and yards in every game this season. Is this a championship-winning formula? I honestly believe that it is only because Jeremiah Smith is that good. I also believe that Brock Boyd and Chris Henry Jr. will become more of a factor in this offense as they gain experience. I
t's also something to be said that those young receivers probably have more chemistry with Luke Fahey than they do with Julian Sayin, as they have gotten a lot of second-team reps.
Ohio State's running back room has been one of the weaknesses of the team so far, and the injury to Ja'Kobi Jackson makes that even worse. Bo Jackson ran for 1,000 yards as a true freshman, but he hasn't improved on his obvious weaknesses from last season.
Isaiah West hasn't been able to take reps from either of the Jacksons, although he did run hard in the most recent game against Indiana. There is optimism that Ja'Kobi Jackson can return for the Michigan game, but as of now, this room isn't good enough to win a national title. If Julian Sayin is truly done for the season, the running game will have to step up.
To call the state of the quarterback room a disaster is probably a little too strong, but Billy Fessler's room has certainly not lived up to expectations. Julian Sayin has been mostly good this season, but he wasn't good enough at Texas, and he was having his worst game as a Buckeye before the injury at Indiana. As a second-year starter, he doesn't look like he has improved much from last season other than the fact that he will occasionally scramble for some easy yards now.
The fact that Tavien St. Clair isn't ready to play was already a problem before Sayin's injury, but now it is a disaster. We knew St. Clair would be a project, as he was coming from Division III Ohio high school football, but I think it is more than fair to expect him to be ready to fill in as a backup in his sophomore season. This is a different era of college football than it was in 2014.
Cardale Jones probably would've transferred before 2014 if the environment were what it is now. Depth is harder to come by, but Ohio State is now looking at an undersized true freshman three-star quarterback starting for the rest of the season.
Maybe Luke Fahey will be amazing. You can't rule it out before seeing it, but I cannot say that this room can win a national title as of today if Julian Sayin is truly done for the season. Arthur Smith has done a good job so far in his first year as offensive coordinator, but he will really have to earn his large salary over the second half of the season.
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