Total Confidence Level
After being under 80 percent for the past two weeks, it feels good to go into a game above that magical number. Since I have been writing a confidence level article on a weekly basis during the Buckeye season, only twice have I been above 80 percent and Ohio State has lost. Those games were in 2017 against Iowa, and in 2018 against Purdue. All other losses Ohio State has had since I started this exercise in 2016, my confidence level going into those games was under 80 percent.
This week I am at 91 percent. In other words, I believe the Ohio State football team’s chances of winning this game are at 91 percent, which is pretty high. College football is a funny sport, and on any given Saturday, an upset can occur. Such was the case in 2015 when the Spartans came into Ohio Stadium on a cold and rainy November evening and defeated the Buckeyes 14-17. No one believed Michigan State was going to win that night either, but they did.
I just don’t believe that lightning is going to strike twice for the Spartans this weekend. The Ohio State football program has too much riding on this game to look ahead and swing and miss against a Michigan State team that has had to battle so many off-the-field issues this season. Beating Ohio State for Sparty would be more of a miracle this year than it was in 2015.
Which is why my confidence level is as high as it is this week. I don’t believe Ohio State will cover the spread, but this is the kind of game where if the ball starts to roll downhill early, things could get out of hand fast and we could be watching the backups play the majority of the final quarter.