Ohio State Football: Buckeyes 1st CFP Ranking Outlook

Ohio State has played at least 2 fewer games than any team in the top 6 of the AP poll, don’t expect the committee to hold this against the local team in the initial College Football Playoff rankings.

The Ohio State Buckeyes, fresh off of a 42-35 win against the then number nine ranked Indiana Hoosiers, should claim one of the coveted top four spots in the College Football Playoff Rankings when they are revealed for the first time this season on Tuesday night.

Where they stand in the top four is somewhat of a mystery, like everything else in an uneven and unpredictable college football season taking place during a global pandemic. While the general expectation is that the top four will be some order of Alabama, Clemson, Notre Dame, and Ohio State, nobody really knows what the committee’s approach will be in a one-of-a-kind season.

At an elementary level, objectively looking at the result on the scoreboard, Ohio State left the Horseshoe with a quality win that few other teams in the country can match. Only Notre Dame (over Clemson), Texas A&M (over Florida), and Alabama (over Texas A&M) can claim a win better or equal to the Buckeyes triumph over the Hoosiers.

This puts the Buckeyes in a good position for a top-four ranking, considering the selection committees propensity to reward top tier wins above anything else. It is especially important this year, as Ohio State will play fewer games than all other contenders not named Oregon.

Another factor with heavy influence on the CFP rankings has been ESPN’s Strength of Record (SOR) metric. In both 2018 and 2019, each team slotted in the top four of the committees’ initial ranking also found themselves in the Strength of Record top four.

I don’t see this happening for the third year in a row, as the current Strength of Record top four is Northwestern, Alabama, Notre Dame, and Cincinnati. The Buckeyes are currently 7th in Strength of Record, trailing Texas A&M and the Miami Hurricanes as well.

Notre Dame has the second-best odds for the second ranking and best odds to wind up third in the rankings. It feels like Notre Dame should be on track for the number two spot, but Vegas always knows something.

All things considered, I expect this to be the order of the top four when the rankings are revealed Tuesday night: 1. Alabama 2. Notre Dame 3. Ohio State 4. Clemson. Alabama and Notre Dame are the unquestioned top dogs at the moment. The Buckeyes should find themselves ranked third, but in an unprecedented season with so many uncertainties we shouldn’t be surprised by anything.