Clash of the Titans in the Desert: Three Keys to Victory for the Buckeyes
The Buckeyes and Notre Dame square off in the desert for the best non-playoff bowl matchup. Buckeyes will lean on Elliott to win the game
After the dust settles from the College Football Playoff semifinals on New Year’s Eve, a collision in the desert between two of college football’s greatest programs is primed to be the best bowl game of the season.
Meeting for just the sixth time, Ohio State and Notre Dame enter the Fiesta Bowl a little salty about what could have been this season. Both teams narrowly missed out on the playoffs, but there is little chance that either team shows up flat or disappointed. This is a huge game that has implications on pride, reputation, recruiting and the NFL Draft.
Buckeye Nation is hoping coach Urban Meyer’s third post-season trip to Arizona is as successful as his first two. Here are three keys to the game for the Ohio State:
Making Notre Dame’s Offense One-Dimensional
Led by quarterback DeShone Kizer, the Fighting Irish are the most offensively balanced team the Buckeyes have faced this season since Indiana. Kizer finished the year passing for 2600 yards with 19 touchdowns and nine interceptions. His favorite target is Will Fuller, the All-American wide receiver caught 56 passes for 1145 yards and 13 touchdowns. They are a lethal combination and will test the Buckeyes’ stingy secondary.
The Fighting Irish also run the ball well. CJ Prosise led the way finishing with 1032 yards and 11 TD’s. He averages 6.6 yards-per-carry and is a legitimate receiving threat too. He caught 26 passes for 308 yards this year. The backup is freshman Josh Adams. He had 757 yards and five touchdowns. If needed, Kizer can scramble for yards. He rushed for 499 yards and nine touchdowns.
Co-defensive coordinators Chris Ash and Luke Fickell have pretty much been in sync all season. I doubt that Ash’s departure will have any impact on their preparation for this game. He will want to leave Ohio State on a high note by beating Notre Dame.
It will be interesting to see how coach Brian Kelly tries to take advantage of Adolphus Washington’s suspension. There is potential for success in the running game, but will he have the guts to stick to it if it is not producing results? Perhaps Kelly will anticipate a weaker pass rush and let Kizer air it out to beat the Buckeyes.
It may not matter as Ash and Fickell will sell out to stop Notre Dame’s running game first. The Fighting Irish struggled to move the ball on the ground against the three best defenses they faced this year. There is no reason to expect anything different in this game, even with Washington out of the lineup.
The defense will force Kelly to pass to win the game. The only adjustment it will have to make is when Kelly starts moving the pocket away from Bosa to minimize his impact. Other teams have tried to do this with minimal success.
Besides, Vonn Bell, Tyvis Powell, Gareon Conley and Eli Apple form one of the best secondaries in college football. They can slow down Fuller, especially when Joey Bosa and the line are getting pressure on Kizer. They will limit Fuller’s big plays and keep the ball in front of them all afternoon.
Pound the Ball
The loss to Michigan State will haunt Meyer for the rest of his life. Ezekiel Elliott’s lack of carries against the Spartans was a coaching failure and cost the team a chance to repeat. He will not make the same mistake against the Fighting Irish and cost the team a bowl win.
Beyond just giving the ball to the best player, feeding Elliott is important to keep the offense in rhythm and in favorable down and distance situations. Notre Dame’s defense ranks No. 18 in the FBS on third-down efficiency allowing opponents to convert just 33.14-percent. By comparison, the Buckeyes’ offense has been lousy much of the year on third down converting just 39-percent.
Elliott averages 6.38 yards-per-carry. He plays behind an offensive line that thrives on playing old school, smash-mouth football. On December 20, Elliott tweeted that, “Never felt more prepared in his life.’ Take him at his word and feed him the ball. He’ll carry the team to victory.
Force Turnovers
The Buckeyes’ defense has struggled to create turnovers this year, but Notre Dame is a giving team. In its two losses, the Fighting Irish were minus-four in turnovers. In close games against Boston College and Temple that Notre Dame won, they were minus five in turnovers.
When the ground game is stopped, Bosa and Tyquan Lewis will harass Kizer in the pocket forcing him into risky throws to try to keep drives alive. If this is a NFL showcase game for Bell and Darron Lee, they will get plenty of chances to make an impact on the outcome of this game. An interception or two will make a perfect highlight tape.
Turnovers will give Ohio State’s offense more chances to turn a close game into a blowout. If the defense rises, Buckeyes will cruise to a comfortable win.
Analysis
Meyer is 9-2 overall in the post-season with three national championships. Kelly is 5-3 in bowl games. Both would love to head into the off-season with a decisive victory over a rival.
Notre Dame and Ohio State are similar on so many fronts that the Fiesta Bowl on January 1 will be one of the better non-playoff bowl games. Ultimately it is Ohio State’s edge on the defensive side of the ball that will decide the game. Notre Dame’s offensive struggles will give the Buckeyes’ offense ample opportunities will wear down the Fighting Irish defense. The Slobs and Elliott will take control in the second half and seal a hard-fought 31-17 win in the desert.
The Buckeyes won’t repeat as National Champions, but a 12-1 season with back-to-back wins over Michigan and Notre Dame are delightful consolation prizes.