Buckeyes Ready to Flip the Switch Heading into Stretch Run

With a 28-3 road win at Illinois in the books, Ohio State turns its attention to the meat of the schedule.  Marginally criticized for playing down to inferior competition and often looking uninspired through the first 10 games, the Buckeyes enter the stretch run determined to prove they can flip the switch and play to the level everyone expects.

Heading into the season, most expected the Buckeyes to dominate every opponent.  Obviously that did not happen, but 10-0 is still 10-0.  They are in prime position to win the Big Ten and make it back into the playoff.  All of the goals are still intact.

Unlike last year, standing in their way are three highly ranked opponents with more on the line than just ending the Buckeyes 30-game conference regular season winning streak.  Iowa and Michigan State have a legitimate shot to make it into the playoff too.  Michigan would love nothing more than kicking off the Jim Harbaugh era with a win against Urban Meyer in college football’s fiercest rivalry to re-establish the balance of power in the Big Ten.

No playoff contender has a more challenging end to the season.  To win all three games and make it back into the College Football Playoff to defend its title, the team needs to improve two areas.

Third-Down Efficiency

As the chart below shows, the offense’s execution on third down is down significantly compared to 2014.

Converting on third down is usually a result of playing well on first down.   This offense is already having trouble finding its rhythm early in the game and allows 5.80 tackles-for-loss per game.  Calling plays like jet sweeps and five-step drop passes that have potential for significant negative-yard consequences if executed poorly need to be avoided.

There were three series in the first half against Illinois when Ezekiel Elliott did not touch the ball which seems inexcusable considering he is the best player and averages 6.48 yards-per-carry.

No doubt offensive coordinator Ed Warriner is trying to keep defenses off-balance by mixing up the play calling and getting all of his playmakers involved, but it seems like this strategy is also hindering the Buckeyes’ offense in the first quarter.   Warinner should get Elliott and the power running going first as this seems to open up everything else.

For much of the season, the team has been leaning on the Silver Bullets who are playing extraordinarily well, but maintaining this level against dramatically better competition will be difficult if they are on the field too much. Extending drives against the Spartans, Wolverines and Hawkeyes will be challenging as all three defenses are good at getting off the field on third down.

Success on first down will be high if Warinner has the discipline to commit to running the ball with his one-two punch of J.T Barrett and Elliott.   Forget mixing it up.  Go with what works and pound them into submission.

Turnovers

If talent alone determined the outcome of games, there would be no cause for concern with Ohio State’s lowly  minus-1 turnover margin.  Few teams can realistically compete with the Buckeyes unless they give the ball away.  It is time to cease being so giving.

Contrary to perception, the offense is not to blame.  The reality is the defense is creating less turnovers this year, specifically interceptions.

As the chart shows,  the offense averaged 1.73 turnovers-per-game in 2014 compared to 1.70 this season.  The defense averaged 2.20 takeaways-per-game in 2014 and is getting just 1.60 per-game this year.

Of course there are many reasons for the lack of interceptions through the first 10 games, but pressure from Joey Bosa and company is the main reason.  Opposing quarterbacks are frequently forced into throwing quick passes that are off target, mainly in the dirt or out-of-bounds.

At this point in the season, changing their fortunes is improbable, especially since Michigan State and Iowa are two of the best teams when it comes to protecting the ball. The Michigan game could come down to turnovers as the Wolverines are not good at creating turnovers either.

Moving forward, the best hope is keeping the margin at net zero by not turning it over on offense.

Next: What We Learned: Ohio State vs Illinois

Analysis:

Fans has been impatiently waiting for the next three games to see if the Buckeyes are ready to put all nine units together as one and trounce the competition en route to a Big Ten Championship.  Hopes are high that the team has just been bidding its time to rise to the occasion.  As long as they tighten up the third down inefficiencies and protect the ball, Buckeyes will win all three games and head into the playoff with momentum.