Game 12: M*chigan Wolverines Preview
By Adam
Sorry, but there will not be a witty opening paragraph this week. If you need jokes or stories to get you pumped up for this Game, then the chances are that you’re not an Ohio State or M*chigan fan. This is the week that both teams, coaches, and fans look forward to every year. Period. The recent roles may have changed this season, but the fact remains that this is the greatest rivalry in college football, and perhaps all of sports. I will do my best to take off the OSU alumnus hat right now, and give the most honest and unbiased preview of that team that I can, but man do I hate M*chigan.
Hatred aside…mostly…here are a few names/numbers to watch for in this week’s matchup…
Offense
Denard Robinson (#16, Junior, 6’1”, 193 lbs) – This kid is the definition of a dual threat quarterback, but far from the definition of a consistent player. He could very well be the most talented and physically gifted player in the conference, but his game has its issues. For example, his 15 TD to 14 INT ratio leaves a lot to be desired, and it cannot be written off as a fluke, as he has thrown at least one interception in every game but one this year. His completion percentage tends to hover between 50 and 55%, and although his passing stats aren’t gaudy by any means (83rd in the nation), a lot of that has to do with the success of their run game.
It’s fairly well known that his passing skills will never be comparable to Andrew Luck, but it’s his ability to run that often has defenders’ eyes glued to him in the backfield, thus allowing his receiving core to find open field. Robinson has averaged just under 100 yards per game rushing this year, but it’s also important to note that in his 10 games, over 50% of that production came in his first 3 games. His totals since October have been a much more human 63 yards rushing per game, but he certainly has the ability to pull the ball on a zone read and turn a missed arm tackle into an 80 yard TD run.
Devin Gardner (#7, Sophomore, 6’4”, 210 lbs) – In staying with the quarterback theme of the past few weeks, M*chigan may throw Devin Gardner in on occasion to get some reps. He, most likely, won’t attempt more than 5 to 7 passes in relief for Robinson, and he has the ability to run, but does not have the same breakaway speed as #16.
Fitzgerald Toussaint (#28, Sophomore, 5’10”, 200 lbs) – Although Denard Robinson is the team’s leading rusher, it’s the workhorse, Fitzgerald Toussaint, that has provided them with something that they lacked through the Rich Rod years…a solid running back. Toussaint has rushed for over 800 yards in, essentially, eight games. However, it’s in his last 4 appearances that That Team has begun to transition into the pro-style team of old, and veer slightly away from their offense of the last few years. By this, I mean that Brady Hoke has given Toussaint the rock over 20 times in 3 of the last 4 games, only missing out against Iowa because of an early point deficit. In those 3 games, Toussaint ran for well over 100 yards in each, and found the endzone 5 times. This running back has very good speed and an ability to find a crack in the line and slip through for big yards, as evidenced by his recent TD runs of 59 and 65 yards against Purdue and Illinois, respectively.
The Wolverines, although their passing attack has not been their bread and butter this year, have another solid trio of wide receivers that OSU will have to account for at all times. Again, and I can’t stress it enough this week, if an Ohio State defensive back let’s go of a receiver for a split second to spy on Robinson, they will pay for it. Junior Hemingway (#21, Senior, 6’1”, 225 lbs), Jeremy Gallon (#10, Sophomore, 5’8”, 180 lbs), and Roy Roundtree (#12, Junior, 6’1”, 176 lbs) lead the team in receptions and yards with 29-554, 26-425, and 15-324. These 3 carry the majority of the passing game workload, but other players (namely TE Kevin Koger, WR Martavious Odoms, and RB Vincent Smith) have also gotten in on the fun. Hemingway is a big physical receiver, so watch for him and Koger to be used in the red zone and on third and short instances. Other than that, it’s a crapshoot as to which WR will see the most targets on Saturday. My bet for which WR will be the most successful would be whichever one gets the call for a deep middle route, as that has torched the Buckeyes’ coverage all season.
Defense / Special Teams
I’m not used to saying this, but the Wolverines’ defense has improved dramatically over the past few years, and is currently ranked 6th in the nation in points against (15.6 per game). The hiring of defensive coordinator Greg Mattison in the offseason has clearly had a positive effect on this team. Mattison had previously been a TSUN defensive line coach for 5 years (also DC for 2 of those years), during which the Wolverines lead the conference for 4 consecutive seasons in rush defense. Mattison had been coaching the Baltimore Ravens defense, but decided to join Brady Golic-Hoke in Ann Arbor this year.
Tackles:
78 – Kenny Demens (#25, LB, Junior, 6’1”, 248 lbs)
60 – Jordan Kovacs (#32, S, Junior, 6’, 197 lbs)
55 – Thomas Gordon (#30, S, Sophomore, 5’11”, 208 lbs)
Sacks:
4.5 – Ryan Van Bergen (#53, DE, Senior, 6’6”, 288 lbs)
4 – Craig Roh (#88, DE, Junior, 6’5”, 269 lbs)
3 – Mike Martin (#68, DT, Senior, 6’2”, 304 lbs) & Jordan Kovacs
Interceptions:
2 – JT Floyd (#8, CB, Junior, 6’, 185 lbs)
1 (5 players tied) – Jordan Kovacs, Thomas Gordon, Brandin Hawthorne, Courtney Avery, Brandon Herron
As usual, M*chigan has put the “special” in special teams. Sophomore kicker, Brendan Gibbons (#34, Sophomore, 6’1”, 227 lbs) has missed one PAT this season (47 of 48), but his field goals have been far less impressive. He is kicking 80% inside of 40 yards, but is just 1 for 3 on attempts longer than 40 yards, with a long of 42 on the year. Punters Will Hagerup and Matt Wile have been able to average just under 38 yards per punt, placing them (collectively) near the bottom of the conference. Similarly, the Wolverines’ return game has been right there with their punting unit at the bottom. Martavious Odoms has averaged just 22.7 yards per kick return this year, but Jeremy Gallon’s 10 yards per punt return is the highlight of this special teams bunch.
11/26 OSU vs. M*chigan
What must OSU do in order to get a win over That School Up North?
1) Balanced Attack – M*chigan has proven that they are susceptible to a strong rushing attack this year in both of their losses to Michigan State and Iowa. However, if OSU is unable to complete 10 passes (my own barometer for this game), then M*chigan will simply load the box and blitz Braxton Miller all night. Having the appearance of a passing attack, and forcing the secondary to stay back and linebackers to watch for screens and slants will result in bigger gains in the running attack for the Bucks.
2) First Half Lead – In both losses this year, the Wolverines went into the locker room at halftime down by at least 11 points. If Ohio State can somehow break its recent trend of falling behind 10-0 before the crowd even knows what hit them, then the Bucks may have a good chance to win.
3) TACKLE – Ok, this time I mean it…TACKLE! This M*chigan team has multiple players with big play ability, so if we have another tackling performance (olé) like those against Miami, Nebraska, Indiana, Purdue, and Penn State, it could be a long day.
4) Under 20 Points – This goes hand-in-hand with the previous task, but if Ohio State can hold TSUN to under 20 points, then they can win this game. M*chigan is most comfortable when in a track meet of non-stop scoring. At that point, opposing touchdowns and field goals can be accepted without the threat of losing. However, in tight, low scoring games, they have not been able to come out on top. In fact, the last time that M*chigan won a game and scored under 27 points was in September of 2008 against the Miami (OH) RedHawks (16-6).
My prediction: OSU 20 M*chigan 17
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