Week 8: Wisconsin Badgers Preview

I can’t think of a week in which I’ve been more confused in previewing a Buckeye game and predicting the outcome than this one right here.  Until two days ago, I had envisioned this game as an impossible task.  I’m not one for moral victories, especially as a Buckeye fan, but I heard myself saying on numerous occasions, “I just hope we can keep it close.”  And then, the unthinkable happened, and like Ivan Drago in Rocky IV, Wisconsin showed us last week that they are human by losing to Michigan State.  Side note…Rocky IV is easily the best Rocky, since it’s the only movie in the series where he doesn’t go through a wimpy, emotional phase.  Well, that and he ends the Cold War single-handedly.  With that said, it’s time to meet the players you’ll need to know for the Wisconsin Badgers…

Offense

As luck, and weekly texts/calls from Bret Bielema, would have it, they accomplished the rare feat of snagging a starting QB with three years of college experience under his belt.  Russell Wilson was drafted in the MLB in 2010 by the Colorado Rockies, and then graduated from North Carolina State.  He was torn on his decision of playing professional baseball or college football, and NC State made the gutsy decision to call it quits with Wilson, since he was not fully committed to playing quarterback for them in 2011.  Oops.  Wilson made the decision to transfer, and because ties were cut and he had graduated, he was free to play this year for the Badgers when he selected Wisconsin as his university of choice.

Wilson is not your average dual-threat quarterback, but a very intelligent student-athlete who shows it on and off the field.  Many QBs with his skill set know that they can make plays with their feet and assume that they can make equally risky plays with their arm as well.  Russell Wilson, however, has the ability to make the big plays when needed AND make the smart reads when looking downfield.  Until last week, Wilson had a 14:1 TD to INT ratio, and had shown very few instances in which he seemed rattled or shaken.  Now, after watching him throw 2 more INTs against a tough Michigan State defense, we know that he is human and can be forced into a bad decision or two.  Don’t get me wrong, he is averaging 250+ yards passing per game, over a  70% completion percentage, and roughly 30 yards rushing per game, so he is better than most other QBs in the country.  He’s going to perform, and perform well, but maintaining focus and discipline, getting pressure, and being in position to take advantage of his miscues will be crucial for OSU.

Wisconsin, as usual, is very talented at the running back position.  Just when you thought you breathe a sigh of relief that John Clay was gone, Montee Ball shows that he is the real deal and anything but just a change of pace back that often relieved Clay.  Ball (Junior, #28, 5’11”, 210 lbs) is a top back in the Big Ten and NCAA in general, and his blend of speed, quickness, and power are going to translate into a good NFL career.  He has great vision and the ability to make the first tackler miss, and when that happens and he is able to reach the second level, goodnight.  Despite losing 20 pounds in the offseason to improve his quickness, he can also grind and fight for tough yards in the trenches.  As Wisconsin showed us last year, if our run defense is not prepared and disciplined, the rest won’t matter.  Bielema will be just fine with running us to death and letting Wilson make the occasional big play if we show that we’re having trouble filling the gaps and making stops.  His WORST yards-per-carry outing this year was a 4.6 ypc effort against Northern Illinois…that’s scary.  He has 768 yards on the ground already this season, and another 190 yards on 9 catches in the receiving game.  Just to give you perspective, our most productive wide receiver, Devin Smith, has 3 less yards on the same number of catches. 

James White (Sophomore, #20, 5’10”, 195 lbs) rounds out the backfield as the other major running back contributor for the Badgers.  Although similar in stature, White is the shiftier of the two backs, and less likely to get the carries in short yardage situations.  However, both backs are fully capable of stepping in without missing a beat.  Wisconsin was only 4 yards away (Ball finished last year with 996 yards) from becoming the only FBS team to have 3 different backs run for over 1000 yards in the same season (Clay had 1012, White had 1052).  Expect Ball to get more carries in this game, but it will still be roughly 60/40, so White will get his chances too.

Nick Toon (Senior, #1, 6’3”, 220 lbs) and Jared Abbrederis (Sophomore, #4, 6’2”, 180 lbs) are Wisconsin’s main receiving threats so far in the 2011 season.  Toon is a Badger legacy, as his father Al played for them from 1982 to 1984 and left as the school’s leading receiver for his career (2103 yards).  Like his father, he has very good size and a knack for finding openings in the secondary.  Nick Toon consistently gets to the open space and causes trouble for defenses by playing smart and then using his skills once he has the football to find the endzone.  Abbrederis, on the other hand, may be lacking in the legacy department, but is making his name known by getting the ball and making plays.  He currently leads the team in receptions, and is also busy with kick and punt returns.  He is another smart player who can find and exploit weaknesses in coverage, and he is very shifty and quick once he has the ball.  If the OSU secondary misses a tackle when Abbrederis comes across the middle, as he almost certainly will, he will make them pay.

It almost goes without saying, but Wisconsin’s offensive line is good, again.  If you’d like names and specifics, I’m sure that we could get them to you and break it down, but most of you see “offensive line” and begin to doze off.  Kevin Zeitler, the right guard, is a tremendous force up front, but again, they are all big and good, and will be a big test for the talented OSU defensive line.

Defense / Special Teams

Chris Borland (Sophomore, #44, 5’11”, 245 lbs) is arguably the best player on Wisconsin’s entire team and a true leader by example for the defense.  First of all, he possesses an extremely strong and masculine last name, and one that, quite frankly, beautiful women associate with power, success, and happiness.  In all seriousness, Chris Borland is a linebacker that any team would want.  He leads the Badger defense in solo tackles (30), total tackles (71), tackles for loss (10.5), and also has 2 sacks, and an INT to add to his collection.  He can always be found at the ball at the end of a play and the battle between he and Zach Boren (who looks like Borland’s slightly less-gingery doppelganger, also #44) will be legen…wait for it…………dary.

Another anchor of this defense is LB Mike Taylor (Junior, #53, 6’2”, 230 lbs), who is second on the team in tackles (64), first in assisted tackles (44), and also adds a sack and an INT.  He was named Big Ten Defensive Player of the Week after games against Nebraska and Oregon State this year, and like Borland, is always around on big stops and important plays for Wisconsin.

In the secondary, Aaron Henry (Senior, #7, 6’, 210 lbs) and Antonio Fenelus (Senior, #26, 5’9”, 190 lbs) are Wisconsin’s biggest ball hawks so far this year with two INTs each, and are also consistent tacklers with 30 and 26 respectively.

The defensive line of Wisconsin, led by Brendan Kelly and Louis Nzegwu has been good against the run, giving up an average of around 120 yards rushing per game.  Their real bread and butter, though, has been against the pass, where the Badgers are only giving up 165 yards a game.  Michigan State was able to show that they are not invincible in this department, but Sparty’s attack has looked slightly different than Ohio State’s so far this season.

The kicking game for Wisconsin is currently led by senior kicker Philip Welch, who took over for at the start of October.  He has been perfect in extra points, but had a field goal blocked against Michigan State last week.  The punting by the senior, Brad Nortman has been very good, but he too had an attempt blocked last week which resulted in an MSU touchdown. The return game, typically led by James White (kick returns) and Jared Abbrederis (punt returns) has been average on the kicking side (good news for OSU fans that have tried to block out last year’s start) and very solid on the punting side.  Abbrederis returned a punt 60 yards for a TD, which would be impressive against anyone other than Indiana.  It’s still a good conditioning drill in running a 60 yard sprint, but a TD tends to lose its value when you find out it was against the Hoosiers.

10/29 OSU vs. Wisconsin

As I mentioned, I viewed this juggernaut as something that I’d love to go up against in most other Buckeye seasons, but not this one.  However, Sparty proved that this Wisconsin team is not as good as we had all thought.  They are still a very good program, as Wisconsin tends to be in most years, but is there more of a chance for a Buckeye upset than we originally thought?

What must OSU do in order to get a win over a loaded Wisconsin Badgers team?

1) First and foremost, the Ohio State offense must be on par with their first half performance against Nebraska for the Buckeyes to have a legitimate shot at beating Wisconsin.  Sure, we held MSU to 10 points, but I don’t expect us to be able to contain all of the Badgers’ weapons on offense for a full 60 minutes.  If OSU scores anything less than 17 points in this game, they will not win, but anything over 17 may get the job done.  Wisconsin has not dropped below the 31 point mark all year, but the one time they allowed more than 17 points was in last week’s loss.
 
2) Time of possession and field position will be HUGE in this game.  OSU cannot afford, as mentioned above, to struggle tremendously on offense.  They need to use their proven run game to wear down the Badgers’ front line on defense and strike more than occasionally with quick passes and screens to prevent them from overloading the box.  Don’t get me wrong, a big play for a TD would be excellent, but I’d be even happier with a long, slow drive down the field that milks as much time off the clock as possible.  We can’t give Wisconsin time to work with or their explosive offense will make the most of it.

3) As much as it pains me to say it, I think that coaching and clock management will be crucial in this game.  Will Fickell read up on timeouts and how they should be used before this game?  Or will we see another episode of “I double-dog dare you not to call a timeout or try to score before half-time”…”You’re on!”
 
My (optimistic) prediction:  OSU 24    Wisconsin 21
 
Follow me on Twitter @AJBorland and let me hear your predictions for the game