Game 10: Purdue Boilermakers Preview

Toot Toot, Boiler Up!  God, I hate that cheer. 

Other than a campus tour when I was a high school senior, my only other visit to West Lafayette left a bad taste in my mouth.  It was almost exactly 7 years prior to Saturday’s game, and a bunch of us took a road trip to Purdue to watch our Buckeyes trample the Boilermakers.  We got into our normal pre-game shenanigans, not to be discussed on here, and then cruised/stumbled into Ross-Ade Stadium cocky and ready for a butt-whooping.  Unfortunately, what came next was a 24-17 loss that left us angry, tired, very much sober, and almost bruised after a couple of near altercations (right, Chris?).  Add that defeat to the shocking upset that we suffered at the hands of the Boilermakers in 2009, and this team is not on my good side. 

I will take a victory anyway we can get it this year, but I wouldn’t mind if it came in the form of some huge hits and physical play on both sides of the ball.  In other words, turn their own locomotive mascot against them and make sure they remember the immortal words of Rube Baker (Major League 2), “You’re standing on the tracks and the train’s coming through, butthead.” 

Here are a few names/numbers to watch for in this week’s matchup…

Offense

Caleb TerBush (#19, Junior, 6’5”, 225 lbs) – This giant ginger has been the most solid QB for Purdue this season, registering playing time in each of their 9 games so far. Although he averages almost 7 carries per game, his 3 yards per carry average on QB runs places him somewhere on the running threat factor above long snappers, but below punters. His feet may not make him quite the threat that Tre Roberson was last week, but his arm should be enough to play a factor in this game. Don’t get me wrong, he shouldn’t be putting up Case Keenum numbers, but he hasn’t thrown for under 100 yards in a game and typically hovers around the 150 yards, 60% completion percentage, and 1 TD pass range. He has a decent 10 TD to 6 INT ratio, and has easily been the best in the 1st and 4th quarters of games this season, with nearly 64% of his yardage and only 33% of his INTs coming during those periods.

Robert Marve (#9, Senior, 6’1”, 212 lbs) – Marve, a transfer from Miami, has battled knee injuries (2 MCL tears) for the past two seasons, but should get a few snaps in this game as well. I wish that I could tell you why he will be getting those snaps, but I really can’t figure it out. TerBush doesn’t step on the field and run the offense like Peyton Manning, but he’s a decent Purdue QB who can move the ball down the field. Marve, on the other hand, is a less accurate passer (54%), an even less intimidating runner (0.8 yards per carry), and has a TD to INT ratio of 3 to 2.

Ralph Bolden (#23, Junior, 5’9”, 190 lbs) and Akeem Shavers (#24, Junior, 5’11”, 203 lbs) should shoulder most of the work in the backfield for Purdue. The Boilermakers’ run game has been average this year, but due to falling behind in some games early, they haven’t put up gaudy numbers. Bolden and Shavers are both averaging over 4 yards per touch, but again, are no more talented than other backs in the Big Ten Conference this year that OSU has been able to contain. One thing that they have working against them, as well, is that neither is really a big play running back. Their longest rushes from scrimmage this year did not go for touchdowns, meaning they got caught from behind, most likely, and with the speed in OSU’s secondary and talent on the D-line, I’d be surprised if this pair rushed for a combined 80 yards in Saturday’s game.

What concerns me a bit more is the trio of sold wide receivers that TerBush has available to throw to in Antavian Edison (#13, Junior, 5’11”, 175 lbs), Justin Siller (#2, Senior, 6’3”, 215 lbs), and OJ Ross (#4, Sophomore, 5’10”, 181 lbs). This group has each caught over 25 passes and amassed over 325 yards. They account for 60% of the Boilermakers’ passing attack and will be the unit that could cause our often inconsistent and young secondary some headaches. Individually, I don’t think that any of them has the skill level of BJ Cunningham from Michigan State, AJ Jenkins from Illinois, or Nick Toon from Wisconsin, but when they are all on the field at once, it should provide a test for the Buckeyes. A key factor in their success on Saturday will be the defensive line, and specifically John Simon’s ability to lead the pack in getting pressure on TerBush throughout the day. If he has time in the pocket to throw, then the short passes that eat up time, yardage, and confidence could be crucial.

Defense / Special Teams

Purdue’s defense has been consistently inconsistent.  Just when you think that the Notre Dame game, and their inability to slow down the Fighting Irish offense was a fluke, they give up 98 points in their past TWO weeks against M*chigan and Wisconsin.  Other than those three games, the Boilermakers had given up between 14 and 24 points in all other competitions, excluding the 59-0 romp of Southeast Missouri State.  If not for jumping out to a first quarter 21 point lead against Illinois and hanging on for dear life in a 21-14 win, this team would have just 3 unimpressive wins on the year.  Granted, they only have 4, but that win over Illinois shows just enough promise that they cannot be overlooked.  For has shaky as they have been the past two weeks, this team showed defensive promise early on, and has a few names worth noting.

Dwayne Beckford (#3, Junior, 6’1”, 228 lbs) and Joe Holland (#30, Senior, 6’1”, 229 lbs) are the team’s leaders on defense in tackles with 70 and 67, respectively.  Both players also have 4 tackles for loss, several defended passes, and 1 INT each.  Both linebackers have been in the top twenty in tackles in the Big Ten at least once over the past two seasons, and both bring good speed to their roles on D, especially Holland who is a safety convert.  In the secondary, Ricardo Allen (#21, Sophomore, 5’9″, 176 lbs) has been the main ball hawk for the team, snagging 3 interceptions and blocking a crucial kick against Middle Tennessee State.  Allen played in all 12 games as a freshman last year, and earned 2nd Team All-Big Ten and 2nd Team All-America honors for his play, which included 3 INTs (2 of which were returned for TDs).   

Kawann Short (#93, Junior, 6’3″, 310 lbs) has been extremely powerful and effective on this Purdue front line in 2011.  He was voted a co-captain by his teammates and was 2nd Team All-Big Ten last fall, so he is clearly someone that this team looks up to on the defensive side of the ball.  Short has 42 tackles this year, with a whopping 12.5 of those going for a loss of yardage, including 3.5 sacks.  On top of that, he has proven to be a playmaker by causing a fumble, recovering a fumble, and blocking two kicks.  Kawann should be the biggest test in the trenches for the always entertaining OSU offensive line.

Purdue’s senior kicker, Carson Wiggs is not good. Period. He has missed an extra point and is only 4 out of 9 from beyond 30 yards. If he were kicking in Ohio High School’s Ohio Capital Conference, then those numbers would be frowned upon, but possibly forgiven. However, if you’re the kicker at a Big Ten university and can’t put the ball through the uprights when it counts, then you’re in trouble. Side note, Wiggs has made practice field goals of 67+ yards, but unless you’re in an NCAA Practice Squad Fantasy Football League, I don’t see that helping you. On the other side of the special teams fence is Cody Webster, who is absolutely crushing his punts for Purdue. I realize that touch and direction also play a huge part in the punting game, but having a season average of over 45 yards per game can help balance out the field position battle and keep your team in a game. This is nothing new for Webster, though, as he averaged over 43 yards per attempt last season too.  The play to watch in the return game is Raheem Mostert (#8, Freshman, 5’11”, 180 lbs), who is a speedy kick returner with a long return of 74 yards this year.  He is averaging 31.6 yards per kick return, and definitely has the ability to make a team pay for not staying in their lanes, blowing outside contain, or missing a tackle…lucky for us, we have the Wonder Team of Nate Ebner and Ryan Shazier on kick coverage, so Mr. Mostert had better hold on to the football and maybe throw on a couple of extra pads.

11/12 OSU vs. Purdue

What must OSU do in order to get a win over the Purdue Boilermakers?

1)  Yep, that’s right, I only have one point for this section, but it’s a big one.  Stay focused.  For these Buckeye players, this season went from a definite bust, to a hopeful possibility, to a possible champion in the span of a month and a half.  That’s a roller coaster ride for these players that are always in the spotlight, so losing focus for an instant can be dangerous.  This team has the talent to continue it’s spirit-breaking run domination over another team if they keep their eyes on November 12 and don’t let themselves look to Penn State or M*chigan. 

The best way to do this is to score early and score often.  Get points on the scoreboard early, something in the neighborhood of a 14-17 point lead by halftime, and let our defense take it from there.  This gives us the probability of a win, and allows our defense yet another chance at protecting a lead – something that they need a couple more reps at.  Sure, scoring points for this team doesn’t necessarily happen quickly, as it tends to take several run plays to work the ball downfield, but maybe Braxton get mixed up in signals and actually throw a pass or two, since we know Bollman won’t call one.  At least flash some kind of different offensive look so that the Nittany Lions and Wolverines have something else to gameplan other than which running back will be carrying the ball.

Long story short, I’d love to see a new wrinkle or two, but even with a 50+ rushing attempt performance, OSU should walk out of West Lafayette with a seventh victory.

My prediction: OSU 31 Purdue 13

Follow me on Twitter @AJBorland and let me hear your predictions for the game