Earlier this week, CollegeSpun released an article claiming that Ohio State has the best chance of any team in college football to play in the BCS Title game. A quote behind their reasoning:
History shows that it is extremely rare for three teams from BCS power conferences to finish undefeated and Ohio State easily has the best chance at remaining undefeated, thus the best chance at the title game. In the past five seasons every, non-sanctioned, Automatic Qualifying team that went undefeated has gone to the BCS National Championship Game. Will this be the year that a power conference team goes undefeated but is not invited to the championship game? I do not think so, I think the recent trend will continue and, at most, two Power Conference teams will remain undefeated by the time all of the conference championship games are concluded.
The logic of the article is inherently flawed. Each year is different and you can not use “trends” to state there will not be a year where three teams from power conferences finish the year undefeated. They argue that Ohio State has the best chance to go undefeated, which I wholeheartedly agree with. However, the notion that if Ohio State runs the table they will play in the title game is flawed. As mentioned by the article, the Buckeyes need 2 out of Bama, FSU, and Oregon to loss. If Bama loses to Missouri or FSU to Miami, those teams would also likely have to lose. There is also no guarantee that a 1-loss Oregon or Bama doesn’t end up ahead of Ohio State at year’s end. Our take: Ohio State will likely go undefeated, but they do not have the best chance at a title game berth. The Buckeyes need a lot of help right now. All they can do is win and hope for the best.
You can read the full article here: http://collegespun.com/sec/missouri/ohio-state-has-the-best-chance-to-make-the-bcs-national-championship-game-this-year#